摘要
探讨多发展情景下未来宁夏黄河流域ESV演变特征对于实现黄河流域生态可持续发展具有重要意义。基于宁夏黄河流域1980年~2020年的土地利用特征,采用PLUS模型和价值当量法对宁夏黄河流域“过去-现在”和“未来”2030年多发展情景下的ESV进行评估和预测。结果表明,宁夏黄河流域均以草地和耕地为主,以2000年~2010年的土地变化最为活跃。PLUS模型模拟的Kappa系数为0.892,总精度为0.908,说明模型适用于宁夏黄河流域;所有用地类型的敏感性系数均小于1,表明ESV对价值系数缺乏弹性,计算结果可信。1980年~2020年宁夏黄河流域ESV总体减少了94.12亿元,在2030年自然发展情景下ESV为1574.35亿元,经济发展情景下ESV最低,为1574.26亿元,生态保护情景下ESV最高,为1577.51亿元。该结论可为宁夏黄河流域未来生态保护策略的制定提供一定的决策依据。
It is of great significance to explore the ESV evolution characteristics of the Ningxia Yellow River basin under the multi-development scenario to realize the ecological sustainable development of the Yellow River Basin.Based on the land use characteristics of the Ningxia Yellow River basin from 1980 to 2020,the PLUS model and value equivalent method were used to evaluate and forecast the ESV of the Ningxia Yellow River basin in the"past present"and"future"multi-development scenarios.The results showed that the Ningxia Yellow River basin was dominated by grassland and farmland,and the land change was the most active from 2000 to 2010.The Kappa coefficient simulated by PLUS model was O.892,and the total accuracy was O.908,indicating that the model was suitable for the Ningxia Yellow River basin.The sensitivity coefficients of all land use types were less than 1,indicating that ESV was inelastic to value coefficient,and the calculated results were reliable.From 1980 to 2020,the ESV of the Ningxia Yellow River basin decreased by 9.412 billion yuan.In 2030,the ESV was 157.435 billion yuan under the natural development scenario,the lowest was 157.426 billion yuan under the economic development scenario,and the highest was 157.751 billion yuan under the ecological protection scenario The conclusions can provide some basis for the future ecological protection strategy of the Ningxia Yellow River basin.
作者
高华峰
武春晓
李文静
Gao Huafeng;Wu Chunxiao;Li Wenjing(Jinzhong Hydrological and Water Resources Survey Station,Jinzhong 030600,Shanxi;School of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,Hebei)
出处
《陕西水利》
2025年第12期21-24,共4页
Shaanxi Water Resources
基金
2024年度河北省自然科学基金青年项目(E2024402052)。
