摘要
寒区河道凌汛期堤防渗流险情频发,具有显著的突发链发性和不确定性,其演化过程预测是保障堤防不决口的关键技术。本文梳理了国内外在凌汛期堤防渗流险情驱动因子、演化机制及预测方法等方面的研究进展,指出当前研究虽在单因子作用规律、数值模拟等方面取得进展,但对多因素耦合驱动的演化机制仍认识不足,现有预测方法存在精度与时效性难以协同提升的局限。在此基础上,凝练出复杂环境多因素耦合驱动的凌汛期堤防渗流险情演化机制、基于物理-数据双驱动的预测方法两大关键科学与技术问题,并结合人工智能技术展望了跨学科研究新思路,提出融合物理机制与数据驱动是精准快速预测的主要技术路径,建立“四预”联动模型的科学防控新模式。研究成果可为完善凌汛期堤防险情灾害防御理论方法体系提供科学依据。
Dike seepage hazards in cold-region channels during the ice flood season occur frequently,characterized by prominent abruptness,cascading effects,and uncertainty.Predicting their evolution process is a key technology for preventing dike breaches.This study reviews the research progress both domestically and internationally on the driving factors,evolution mechanisms,and prediction methods of dike seepage hazards during the ice flood season.It points out that while current studies have made progress in areas such as the patterns of sin-gle-factor effects and numerical simulation,the evolution mechanisms driven by multi-factor coupling remain insufficiently understood.Existing prediction methods have limitations in simultaneously improving accuracy and timeliness.On this basis,two key scientific and technical challenges are summarized:the evolution mechanism of dike seepage hazards during the ice flood season driven by multi-factor coupling in complex environments,and the pre-diction method based on physics-data dual drive.By integrating artificial intelligence technologies,this study proposes new interdisciplinary research ideas,highlighting that integrating physical mechanisms with data-driven approaches is the primary technical pathway for precise and rapid prediction,and establishing a“Four-Preventions”linkage model as a new paradigm for scientific prevention and control.The research findings can provide a scientific basis for im-proving the theoretical and methodological system for preventing and mitigating dike hazard disasters during the ice flood season.
作者
田福昌
张安邦
邓宇
郭立兵
赵佳佳
TIAN Fuchang;ZHANG Anbang;DENG Yu;GUO Libing;ZHAO Jiajia(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Intelligent Construction and Operation,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300350,China;School of Civil Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300350,China;Engineering Technology Research Center for Dike Safety and Disease Prevention and Control,Ministry of Water Resources,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Hanyan Canal Management Office of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,Yinchuan 750100,China)
出处
《冰川冻土》
2025年第5期1431-1441,共11页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202501)
国家自然科学基金项目(52309103)
水利部堤防安全与病害防治工程技术研究中心开放课题(LSDP202201)
科技部重点领域创新团队(2014RA4031)资助。
关键词
堤防渗流险情
演化过程预测
物理-数据双驱动
凌汛灾害
寒区河道
dike seepage hazard
evolution process prediction
physics-data dual drive
ice flood disaster
coldregion channel
