摘要
探究央行数字货币对宏观经济的影响及其政策传导机制,对于加快央行数字货币在新形势下的建设发展和深化应用,以及健全现代货币政策框架具有重要意义。本文构建了一个融合新凯恩斯与新货币主义的数字货币模型,基于2000—2024年宏观经济数据,运用政策模拟分析方法,对数字货币存在下的宏观经济响应动态进行模拟分析。研究发现:作为中央银行的一种新型政策工具,央行数字货币可以通过其流动性溢价效应和融资效应影响宏观经济的调控,有效发挥其政策传导作用。央行数字货币的存在不仅不会削弱传统货币政策传导的有效性,反而能够稳定流动性溢价和改善银行业融资条件,从而缓解宏观经济指标在商业周期和金融冲击下的波动。此外,鉴于数字技术进步带来的新发展需求,央行数字货币的发展应在积极推进与维护稳定之间寻求平衡。研究结果为科学运用央行数字货币工具以及把握中国数字人民币的先机,提供了一定的参考价值和决策依据。
Exploring the impact of central bank digital currency(CBDC)on the macroeconomy and its policy transmission mechanism is of great significance for accelerating the construction and deepening application of CBDC under the new situation,as well as for improving the modern monetary policy framework.This paper constructs a digital currency model integrating New Keynesian and New Monetary theories.Based on macroeconomic data from 2000 to 2024,a policy simulation analysis method is employed to simulate the dynamic macroeconomic response under the existence of CBDC.The findings indicate that,as a new type of policy tool for central banks,CBDC can influence macroeconomic regulation through its liquidity premium effect and financing effect,effectively realizing its policy transmission mechanism.The presence of CBDC not only fails to undermine the effectiveness of traditional monetary policy transmission but also stabilizes liquidity premiums and bank financing conditions,thereby mitigating the volatility of macroeconomic indicators under business cycles and financial shocks.Moreover,in light of the new developmental demands brought about by digital technology advancements,the development of CBDC should seek a balance between active promotion and maintaining stability.The research results provide certain reference value and decision-making basis for the scientific use of CBDC tools and seizing the opportunity of China's digital currency.
作者
金成晓
朴津叶
JIN Chengxiao;PIAO Jinye
出处
《经济问题探索》
北大核心
2025年第11期36-59,共24页
Inquiry Into Economic Issues
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“经济下行压力下的稳增长防滞涨研究”(22AJL016),项目负责人:金春雨
教育部重点研究基地重大项目“新时期共同富裕方向的经济高质量发展的宏观调控体系”(22JJD790021),项目负责人:方毅。
