摘要
统计预报法目前在国内外已经得到广泛利用,其特点是根据历史资料的统计规律,通过外推实现预报,这是所有统计预报法的基础。最初级的统计预报是对单站的历史资料本身的统计规律进行外推预报的,这种预报法既不考虑预报量之间的内在联系,又不考虑外界因子的影响,因此预报效果一般较差。
The prediction equations formulated in the existing prediction methods by using the empirical orthogonal function are generally based upon field resolution according to the statistical relation among the predictands.The influence of external factors is seldom to be considered.The present paper attempts to introduce the influence factors into the empirical orthogonal prediction method.There are five different approaches to be proposed for this purpose,what the field prediction method with optimum factors is studied with emphasis.In this method we consider not only the internal correlation among the predictands but also the influence of external factors,and the optimal prediction equation which suitable for predicting both values and grades may be formulated by the selected optimum factors from the combinational factors.The conception of weighting correlation coefficient is suggested here.The obvious difference between it and other correlation coefficients is the former having the field charactor.Several practical examples corresponding to the previous mentioned prediction methods are also presented in this paper.
作者
苏育嵩
苏志清
Su Yusong;Su Zhiqing(Shandong College of Oceanology)
出处
《海洋与湖沼》
1980年第3期189-203,共15页
Oceanologia Et Limnologia Sinica
