摘要
为能够对煤矿火灾事故致灾因素定量分析,研究融合故障树分析法(FTA)与贝叶斯网络(BN),构建数据驱动的FTA-BN模型,量化分析人-机-环-管多因素作用,识别关键致灾因子优先级,为火灾防控提供决策支持。首先,统计了2000—2023年间58起煤矿火灾事故调查报告,采用故障树分析方法构建火灾事故故障树,明确致灾因素及其层级关系;其次,将故障树模型转化为贝叶斯网络模型,并借助GeNIe软件完成网络构建和分析;最后,计算各因素的后验概率及重要度,识别煤矿火灾的关键因素,并提出针对性的控制优化策略。结果表明:违章操作、安全意识差和管理混乱是煤矿火灾的主要诱因;电缆短路及消防设施配备不全等设备因素对火灾事故具有显著影响。研究构建的FTA-BN模型可以量化分析煤矿火灾事故的关键致因因素,为煤矿安全管理研究提供新的范式。
In order to be able to quantitatively analyse the causative factors of coal mine fire accidents,the study integrated fault tree analysis(FTA)and Bayesian network(BN),constructed a data-driven FTA-BN model,quantitatively analysed the role of human-machine-environmental-regulatory multifactorial factors,and identified the priority of key causative factors,so as to provide decision support for fire prevention and control.Firstly,58 coal mine fire accident investigation reports during 2000-2023 were counted,and the fault tree analysis method was used to construct the fire accident fault tree and to clarify the disaster-causing factors and their hierarchical relationships;secondly,the fault tree model was transformed into a Bayesian network model,and the network construction and analysis were completed with the help of GeNIe software;finally,the a posteriori probability and the importance degree of each factor were calculated to identify the coal mine fires'key factors,and to propose targeted control optimisation strategies.The results show that:Illegal operation,poor safety awareness and chaotic management are the main causes of coal mine fires;Equipment factors such as short-circuiting of cables and incomplete fire fighting facilities have a significant impact on fire accidents;The FTA-BN model can quantitatively analyse the key causative factors of coal mine fires,which provides a new paradigm for the study of coal mine safety management.
作者
史恭龙
齐泓辰
刘希希
SHI Gonglong;QI Hongchen;LIU Xixi(College of Management,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710054,China;Institute of Safety Management and Risk Control,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710054,China)
出处
《西安科技大学学报》
北大核心
2025年第6期1168-1177,共10页
Journal of Xi’an University of Science and Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51874237,U1904210)
国家社会科学基金项目(19BJL043,20XGL025)
教育部高教司产学合作协同育人项目(220605844171416)。
关键词
煤矿火灾
贝叶斯网络
故障树
敏感度分析
重要度分析
coal mine fire
Bayesian network
fault tree
sensitivity analysis
importance analysis
