摘要
为量化电网企业运行时各因素的减排贡献率,基于LEAP模型构建了电网企业碳排放分析框架;针对各因素相关性,同时运用情景分析法和比较分析法,设计构建了由综合情景和子情景构成的2级情景分析模型。3个综合情景分别为基准情景、减排情景、强化减排情景,4个子情景分别为建筑能效提升与清洁能源利用、六氟化硫排放控制、降低综合网损率、交通用能清洁化。利用模型对某省电网企业碳排放过程进行模拟计算,验证了模型的准确性。预测结果显示,输配电损失对碳排放影响最大,占比高达96%。
To quantify the emission reduction contribution rates of various factors in power grid operations,a carbon emission analysis framework is developed based on the LEAP model.Considering the interactions among factors,a two-level scenario analysis model consisting of comprehensive scenarios and sub-scenarios is designed through integrated scenario analysis and comparative analysis.Three comprehensive scenarios are established:base scenario,emission reduction scenario and enhanced emission reduction scenario.The four sub-scenarios include building energy efficiency improvement and clean energy utilization,sulfur hexafluoride emission control,comprehensive network loss rate,and clean energy transition in transportation.The model is applied to simulate the carbon emission process of a provincial grid company with model validation.The prediction results show that transmission and distribution losses constitute the dominant factor in carbon emissions,contributing up to 96%of the total.
作者
陈传敏
何宇
蔡萱
瞿子涵
刘松涛
CHEN Chuanmin;HE Yu;CAI Xuan;QU Zihan;LIU Songtao(School of Environmental Science and Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China;Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430000,China)
出处
《华北电力大学学报(自然科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第6期89-96,共8页
Journal of North China Electric Power University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家电网公司总部科技项目(5200-202222102A-1-1-ZN)。
关键词
电网企业
减排贡献率
LEAP模型
情景分析
比较分析
综合网损率
输配电损失
grid companies
emission reduction contribution rate
LEAP model
scenario analysis
comparative analysis
comprehensive network loss rate
transmission and distribution loss
