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基于博弈论—改进云模型的起重机械安全评价

Safety evaluation of lifting machinery based on game theory-improved cloud model
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摘要 为解决当前起重机械安全评价中指标体系不健全、权重确定单一化的问题,基于2019—2023年期间95起起重机械事故调查报告,结合人、设备、作业环境和管理(4M)理论构建起重机械安全评价指标体系;采用最优最劣法(BWM)确定主观权重,并引入指标相关性与冲突性(CRITIC)方法进行客观权重赋权,基于博弈论思想将主、客观权重进行组合赋权,形成综合权重,完成赋权与评价所构建的评价指标体系;以西安市某建筑施工企业A项目在用3台塔式起重机为实证对象,运用改进云模型对其安全状况开展评价验证。结果表明:人员因素是起重机械事故的主要致因,在对作业人员进行安全检查时,应重点关注作业人员的安全意识与安全技术水平;在对起重机械进行安全检查时,要关注安全保护装置的效能及结构本体关键部位的完整性。模型输出与现场检验记录的关键安全指标高度一致,证实了该模型在起重机械安全评价中的有效性。 To address the issues of an incomplete indicator system and oversimplified weight determination in current lifting machinery safety evaluation,a safety evaluation indicator system for lifting machinery was constructed based on Man,Machine,Milieu,Management(4M)factors theory and 95 lifting machinery accident investigation reports from 2019 to 2023.The BWM was employed to determine subjective weights,while an CRITIC method was introduced to determine objective weights.By applying game theory combination weighting,the subjective and objective weights were integrated to form composite weights,thereby enabling the weighting and evaluation of the established indicator system.The results reveal that human factors are the primary cause of lifting machinery accidents.During safety inspections of operators,particular attention should be paid to their safety awareness and technical proficiency.In safety inspections of lifting machinery,the effectiveness of safety protection devices and the structural integrity of key components should be emphasized.The model outputs are highly consistent with key safety indicators in the on-site inspection records,confirming the effectiveness of the proposed model in the safety evaluation of lifting machinery.
作者 刘金娥 蒋鸣 贠柯 谢旭梦 李涌泉 汪班桥 LIU Jin'e;JIANG Ming;YUN Ke;XIE Xumeng;LI Yongquan;WANG Banqiao(Xi'an Special Equipment Inspection Institute,Xi'an Shaanxi 710065,China;College of Geological Engineering and Geomatics,Chang'an University,Xi'an Shaanxi 710064,China;Zhejiang Academy of Special Equipment Science,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310020,China;China Special Equipment Inspection&Research Institute,Beijing 100029,China)
出处 《中国安全科学学报》 北大核心 2025年第11期81-91,共11页 China Safety Science Journal
基金 中国特种设备检验协会软科学课题(CASEI-RKT2024-37)。
关键词 博弈论组合赋权 云模型 起重机械 安全评价 最优最劣法(BWM) 指标相关性与冲突性(CRITIC) game theory combination weighting cloud model lifting machinery safety evaluation best-worst method(BWM) criteria importance though intercriteria correlation(CRITIC)
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