摘要
目的阐明2016—2022年深圳市≥55岁常住人口的肿瘤疾病负担。方法测算2016—2022年33个肿瘤类型造成的早死损失寿命年(years of life lost,YLLs)、伤残损失寿命年(years lost due to disability,YLDs)、伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALYs)。采用Joinpoint回归模型计算DALYs粗率的平均年度变化百分比,以量化其时间变化趋势;构建年龄-时期-队列模型,分解重点肿瘤的YLLs粗率和YLDs粗率,以估计其年龄、时期和出生队列效应。结果≥55岁常住人口DALYs粗率和YLLs粗率的前3位肿瘤类型相同,从高到低依次为:(1)气管、支气管和肺癌;(2)肝癌;(3)结肠癌和直肠癌。YLDs粗率的前3位肿瘤类型从高到低依次为:(1)结肠癌和直肠癌;(2)气管、支气管和肺癌;(3)乳腺癌。重点肿瘤的年龄效应从55岁起上升(最高率比=5461.86,95%CI:5121.36~5824.99);1956年后的出生队列,结肠癌和直肠癌(最高率比=1.81,95%CI:1.68~1.95)、胰腺癌(最高率比=1.94,95%CI:1.74~2.15)的风险升高,肝癌(最高率比=0.77,95%CI:0.73~0.82)风险降低;与2020年相比,重点肿瘤的时期效应于2021年升高(最高率比=1.08,95%CI:1.04~1.13),2022年降低(最低率比=0.91,95%CI:0.89~0.94)。结论深圳市≥55岁常住人口的肿瘤负担以气管、支气管和肺癌、肝癌、结肠癌和直肠癌为主。
Objective To explore the disease burden of neoplasms in the permanent population aged 55 years and above in Shenzhen from 2016 to 2022.Methods From 2016 to 2022,we calculated the years of life lost(YLLs),years lost due to disability(YLDs),and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)for 33 types of neoplasms.The average annual percentage change in the DALYs crude rate was calculated using Joinpoint regression to quantify temporal trends.Age-period-cohort models were employed to decompose the crude rates of YLLs and YLDs for major neoplasms and to estimate their age,period,and birth cohort effects.Results The top three neoplasm types for DALYs crude rates and YLLs crude rates were the same among the population aged 55 and above,and from high to low were:(1)tracheal,bronchus,and lung cancer,(2)liver cancer,and(3)colon and rectum cancer.The top three neoplasm types for YLDs crude rates from high to low in turn for(1)colon and rectum cancer,(2)tracheal,bronchus,and lung cancer,and(3)breast cancer.The age effect of major neoplasms increased significantly from 55 years old(highest rate ratio=5461.86,95%CI:5121.36-5824.99).The post-1956 birth cohort had increased risks of colon and rectum cancer(highest rate ratio=1.81,95%CI:1.681.95),pancreatic cancer(highest rate ratio=1.94,95%CI:1.74-2.15),and liver cancer(highest rate ratio=0.77,95%CI:0.73-0.82).Compared with 2020,the period effect of major cancer increased in 2021(highestrate ratio=1.08,95%CI:1.04-1.13)and decreased in 2022(lowest rate ratio=0.91,95%CI:0.89-0.94).The disease burden of major neoplasms increased with age.The disease burden of tracheal,bronchus,and lung cancer was relatively low in the birth cohort preceding and following 1956,while the disease burden of colon and rectum cancer,and pancreatic cancer increased,and the disease burden of liver cancer and stomach cancer decreased.In 2021,there was an increase in the disease burden of mortality and disability by some major neoplasms,which then reduced in 2022.Conclusions The most significant disease burden of neoplasms in the permanent population aged 55 years and above in Shenzhen were:(1)tracheal,bronchus,and lung cancer,(2)liver cancer,and(3)colon and rectum cancer.
作者
席俊彦
王奕婧
付英斌
李晓恒
李雪琪
白建军
向钇凝
林晓
顾菁
郝元涛
刘刚
XI Junyan;WANG Yijing;FU Yingbin;LI Xiaoheng;LI Xueqi;BAI Jianjun;XIANG Yining;LIN Xiao;GU Jing;HAO Yuantao;LIU Gang(Department of Medical Statistics,School of Public Health,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510080,China;Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510080,China;Centerfor Health Information Research,Guangzhou 510080,China;Office of General Administration,Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shenzhen 518055,China;Shenzhen Center for Disease Controland Prevention,Shenzhen 518055,China;Department of Cancer Prevention,Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center,Guangzhou 5l008o,China;State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China,Guangzhou 510080,China;Operation Management Department,Chengdu Integrated TCM&Western Medicine Hospital(Chengdu First People's Hospital),Chengdu 610041,China;Peking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness&Response,Beijing 100191,China;Department of Epidemiology&Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Peking University,Beijing 100191,China;Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases(Peking University),Ministry of Education,Beijing 100191,China;Division of Immunization Programme,Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shenzhen 518055,China)
出处
《中华疾病控制杂志》
北大核心
2025年第10期1140-1148,1178,共10页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
基金
深圳市“医疗卫生三名工程”项目(SZSM202311001)
国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3600804)
国家自然科学基金(82373684,82204154)。
