摘要
目的分析1992—2021年中国脑卒中疾病负担的动态变化趋势及其主要危险因素,并预测未来的流行趋势,为制定精准的预防策略提供科学依据。方法利用2021年全球疾病负担(Global Burden of Disease,GBD)研究数据,分析1992—2021年中国脑卒中的年龄标化发病率(age-standardized incidence rate,ASIR)、年龄标化患病率(age-standardized prevalence rate,ASPR)、年龄标化死亡率(age-standardized mortality rate,ASMR)和年龄标化伤残调整寿命年率(age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate,ASDR)的变化趋势。采用Joinpoint回归分析探索时间趋势,并采用Nordpred模型预测2022—2046年脑卒中流行趋势。结果1992—2021年,中国脑卒中ASIR从233/10万人[95%不确定性区间(uncertainty internal,UI):209~258]下降至204/10万人(95%UI:181~231),平均年度变化百分比(annual average percentage change,AAPC)为-0.477%(95%CI:-0.548%~-0.405%)。ASPR从1172/10万人(95%UI:1087~1269)上升至1301/10万人(95%UI:1200~1405),AAPC为0.338%(95%CI:0.309%~0.367%)。ASMR从235/10万人(95%UI:208~261)下降至138/10万人(95%UI:116~160),AAPC为-1.834%(95%CI:-2.061%~-1.607%)。ASDR从4681/10万人(95%UI:4181~5220)下降至2648/10万人(95%UI:2253~3076),AAPC为-1.965%(95%CI:-2.117%~-1.813%)。主要危险因素包括环境颗粒物污染、吸烟、烟草、代谢风险、饮食风险、颗粒物污染、空气污染、水果含量低的饮食和高血糖。结论1992—2021年,中国脑卒中的发病率和死亡率呈下降趋势,但患病率有所上升,男性脑卒中和老年人群的疾病负担更为显著,应针对主要危险因素实施精准预防策略,以减轻脑卒中的疾病负担。
Objective To analyze the dynamic trends in the disease burden of stroke and its major risk factors in China from 1992 to 2021,and to predict future prevalence trends,providing a scientific basis for formulating targeted prevention strategies.Methods Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021,we analyzed trends in the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR),prevalence rate(ASPR),mortality rate(ASMR),and disability-adjusted life years(ASDR)for stroke in China from 1992 to 2021.Joinpoint regression analysis was used to explore temporal trends,and the Nordpred model was employed to predict stroke prevalence trends from 2022 to 2046.Results From 1992 to 2021,the ASIR of stroke in China decreased from 233 per 100000 population[95% uncertainty internal(UI):209-258]to 204 per 100000(95%UI:181-231),with an average annualpercentage change(AAPC)of-0.477%(95%CI:-0.548%--0.405%).The ASPR increased from 1172per100000(95%UI:1087-1269)to 1301 per 100000(95%UI:1200-1405),with an AAPC of 0.338%(95%CI:0.309%-0.367%).The ASMR decreased from 235per 100000(95%UI:208-261)to 138 per 100000(95%UI:116-160),with an AAPC of-1.834%(95%CI:-2.061%--1.607%).The ASDR decreased from 4681 per 100000(95%UI;4181-5220)to 2648 per 100000(95%UI:2253-3076),with an AAPC of 1.965%(95%CI;-2.117%--1.813%).Major risk factors included environmental particulate matter pollution,smoking,tobacco use,metabolic risks,dietary risks,particulate matter pollution,air pollution,a diet low in fruits,and high fasting plasma glucose.Conclusions From 1992 to 2021,the incidence and mortality rates of stroke in China showed a declining trend,while the prevalence rate increased.The disease burden of stroke was more significant among males and the elderly population than others.Targeted prevention strategies addressing the major risk factors should be implemented to reduce the disease burden of stroke.
作者
张伟
崔守元
高铭洋
丁甲
王芸婷
刘凯云
李言言
王永斌
ZHANG Wei;CUI Shouyuan;GAO Mingyang;DING Jia;WANG Yunting;LIU Kaiyun;LI Yanyan;WANG Yongbin(Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Xinxiang Medical University,Xinxiang 453000,China;Science and Education Department,the First Hospital of Northwest University,Xi'an 710043,China)
出处
《中华疾病控制杂志》
北大核心
2025年第10期1131-1139,1186,共10页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
基金
河南省自然科学基金(222300420265)
河南省高等学校重点科研项目(21A330004)
国家级大学生创新项目(202410472012)。
关键词
脑卒中
趋势分析
危险因素
预测
Stroke
Trend analysis
Risk factors
Prediction
