摘要
推动传统燃油物流车辆的电动化升级,既符合国家重大战略需求,也有助于物流企业降低长期运营成本。面向新能源货运车辆购置与租赁共存的市场环境,研究需求不确定下物流企业传统货运车队电动化更新决策的优化问题。采用离散场景描述不确定需求,以规划期内的总净收益和期末车队车辆残值现值最大化为优化目标,综合考虑新能源车辆投入预算约束与不同时间阶段车队配置结构的内在联系,构建不确定需求下考虑新能源车购置及租赁的货运车队更新规划模型,按年度进行购买新能源车数量、出售旧车数量以及按需求波动周期租赁新能源车数量的优化决策。在将不确定规划模型转化为等价的混合整数线性规划模型后,利用CPLEX进行求解和计算分析。算例分析表明,通过合理的电动化更新策略,企业货运车队在总运营成本降低36%的同时,碳排放总量减少71%。在不确定需求下,相对仅购置、仅租赁以及一次性全置换等更新策略,购置与租赁混合策略下的车队更新方案收益最高提升53%。此外,新能源车与燃油车混合车队配置在短期规划中能够充分利用不同类型车辆优势,从而获得更高收益。增加新能源车购置预算投入、租赁系数降低以及缩短租赁周期,均有助于提升车队更新的经济效益。研究结果可为物流企业燃油货运车队的电动化升级提供科学参考依据。
Promoting the electrification of traditional fuel-powered logistics vehicles aligns with major national strategic objectives and can help logistics firms reduce long-term operational costs.This study addressed the optimization of fleet renewal decisions for logistics companies under uncertain demand in a market environment where both the purchase and rental of new energy freight vehicles coexist.Demand uncertainty was modeled using discrete scenarios,and the optimization aimed to maximize total net profit over the planning period and the present value of the fleet’s residual value at the end of the period.The model incorporated constraints on the budget for new energy vehicles and considered the inherent relationship between fleet composition at different time stages.An uncertain programming model was developed to guide fleet renewal under uncertain demand,incorporating both purchase and rental options for new energy vehicles.Optimization decisions include the annual purchase quantity of new energy vehicles,the sale of old vehicles,and the rental quantity of new energy vehicles based on demand fluctuations.The model was transformed into an equivalent mixed-integer linear programming formulation and solved using CPLEX.Case studies show that a well-planned electrification strategy can significantly reduce operating costs and carbon emissions compared to a fully fuel-based fleet,with operating costs decreasing by 36%and carbon emissions by 71%,respectively.Compared to strategies that rely solely on purchase,rental,or one-time full replacement,the hybrid purchase and rental strategy provide a 53%higher return.Furthermore,a mixed fleet of new energy and fuel vehicles allows for better utilization of the advantages of different vehicle types,leading to higher returns in short-term planning.Increasing the budget for purchasing new energy vehicles,lowering the rental coefficient,and shortening the rental periods all contribute to improved economic benefits in fleet renewal.The study offers theoretical support for logistics firms transitioning their fleets to electrification.
作者
王承娜
秦进
徐光明
WANG Chengna;QIN Jin;XU Guangming(School of Traffic&Transportation Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China)
出处
《铁道科学与工程学报》
北大核心
2025年第10期4449-4462,共14页
Journal of Railway Science and Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2023YFB2504700)
湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2022JJ30767)。
关键词
不确定需求
运输车队
新能源车辆
购置
租赁
车队更新
uncertain demand
transport fleet
new energy vehicles
purchase
rental
fleet renewal
