摘要
地方政府行为对财政预决算偏离的影响是一个重要但学术界关注不足的研究问题。这不仅体现了地方预算管理行为的水平,也关乎着财政活动的绩效和预算现代财政制度的建立。鉴于此,以中国省级政府为研究对象,主要关注地方主政领导决策下的政府行为对财政预决算偏离的影响。研究发现:首先,在省长更替的年份里,预决算收入偏离度降低。其次,省长任期对预决算支出偏离度的影响呈现倒“U”形关系。再次,省长更替的年份里,省长经管类的专业背景对地方预决算收入偏离具有负向调节作用;在省长任期相同的情况下,省长教育水平的提高和经管类的专业背景对地方预决算支出偏离度具有正向调节作用。最后,在不同经济发展水平和不同财政状况的区域内,省长更替、任期对预决算偏离影响存在异质性特征。这拓展了研究财政预决算偏离的分析视角,并揭示了地方政府行为影响预决算收入偏离与支出偏离的差异性,为进一步降低地方预决算偏离度和约束调整地方政府行为提供了路径启示。
The impact of local government behavior on fiscal budget deviation is an important research issue that has received insufficient attention in the academic community.This not only reflects the level of local budget management behavior,but also concerns the performance of fiscal activities and the establishment of a modern fiscal system.In view of this,this paper takes China's provincial governments as the research object,focusing on the impact of government behavior under the decision-making of local leaders on fiscal budget deviation.The study found that:First,in the years when the governors were replaced,the deviation of budget revenue decreased.Second,the impact of the governor's term of office on the deviation of budget expenditure showed an inverted Ushaped relationship.Third,in the years when the governors were replaced,the governor's professional background in economics and management had a negative regulatory effect on the deviation of local budget revenue;under the condition of the same governor's term of office,the improvement of the governor's education level and the professional background in economics and management had a positive regulatory effect on the deviation of local budget expenditure.Finally,in regions with different economic development levels and different fiscal conditions,there are heterogeneous characteristics in the impact of governor replacement and term of office on budget deviation.This expands the analytical perspective of studying fiscal budget deviation and reveals the differences in the impact of local government behavior on budget revenue deviation and expenditure deviation,which provides a path for further reducing the deviation of local budget and final accounts and constraining and adjusting local government behavior.
出处
《公共管理与政策评论》
北大核心
2025年第6期95-112,共18页
Public Administration and Policy Review
基金
国家社科基金青年项目《地方政府预算稳定调节基金的政策效应及优化路径研究》(25CGL127)。
关键词
财政预决算偏离
地方政府行为
主政领导决策
Fiscal Budget Deviation
Local Government Behavior
Decision-making of the Ruling Leader
