摘要
以典型钢铁工业城市邯郸市为对象,基于2014~2023年大气污染物和气象数据,系统分析了邯郸市O_(3)污染特征,通过应用随机森林模型,探讨了主要气象要素与邯郸市O_(3)浓度的相关性及其相对贡献,并采用WRF-CAMx模型结合EKMA曲线法研究了各区县O_(3)生成敏感性及其前体物减排策略.研究结果表明,邯郸市O_(3)-8h月均浓度呈明显季节性,表现为夏季>春季>秋季>冬季,浓度超标情况主要集中于6~7月,逐小时O_(3)平均浓度呈单峰型趋势,15:00~16:00时段达到峰值.O_(3)浓度与气象要素的相关性分析结果显示,相对湿度(RH)、太阳辐射(SR)和气温(T)与O_(3)浓度相关系数分别为-0.69、0.68和0.58,其相对贡献率分别为(24.90±2.41)%、(18.66±2.30)%和(25.56±2.02)%.当T>30℃和36%<RH<56%时,易出现O_(3)污染.O_(3)主控区结果显示,邯郸市主城区及中西部地区为VOCs控制区,VOCs与NO_(x)的最佳减排比例为1.5:1;东部三区县为NO_(x)控制区,其余地区为VOCs与NO_(x)协同控制区,VOCs与NO_(x)的最佳减排比例为1:1.5.研究结果为工业城市O_(3)污染的减排调控提供了科学的数据支撑和政策建议.
This study focused on Handan,a representative steel industry city,where the characteristics of ozone pollution were systematically analyzed based on atmospheric pollutant and meteorological data from 2014 to 2023.The Random Forest model was utilized to investigate the correlation between key meteorological factors and O_(3)concentrations,as well as their relative contributions.Furthermore,the WRF-CAMx model,combined with the EKMA curve method,was employed to examine O_(3)formation sensitivity and corresponding precursor emission reduction strategies in different districts.The results indicated that the monthly average O_(3)-8h concentration exhibited distinct seasonal variations(summer>spring>autumn>winter),with the highest levels of exceedance occurring between June and July.Hourly O_(3)concentrations followed a unimodal trend,which peaked between 15:00 and 16:00.Correlation analysis revealed that relative humidity(RH),solar radiation(SR),and temperature(T)were significantly correlated with O_(3)concentrations,with correlation coefficients of-0.69,0.68,and 0.58,respectively.Their relative contributions were determined to be(24.90±2.41)%,(18.66±2.30)%,and(25.56±2.02)%.It was found that O_(3)pollution was more likely to occur when T>30℃ and 36%<RH<56%.The O_(3)control zone analysis showed that Handan’s central and western areas were VOCs-controlled,with an optimal VOCs-to-NO_(x)emission reduction ratio of 1.5:1.The eastern districts were identified as NO_(x)-controlled,while other areas required coordinated control of both VOCs and NO_(x),with an optimal reduction ratio of 1:1.5.These findings provided a scientific basis and policy recommendations for the emission reduction and control of O_(3)pollution in industrial cities.
作者
侯晓松
程水源
肖潇
李沅宁
刘晓莉
HOU Xiao-song;CHENG Shui-yuan;XIAO Xiao;LI Yuan-ning;LIU Xiao-li(Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control,College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;Qinhuangdao Meteorological Service,Qinhuangdao 066000,China)
出处
《中国环境科学》
北大核心
2025年第11期6480-6490,共11页
China Environmental Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52330002)。
关键词
邯郸市
O_(3)污染
随机森林
气象要素
前体物减排
Handan city
O_(3)pollution
random forest
meteorological factors
precursor emission reduction
