摘要
装配式建筑节能减排对建筑业低碳发展具有重要的推动作用,我国各地政府出台激励政策推动装配式建筑发展。在政府激励政策引导下,以开发商和消费者为装配式建筑供需双方博弈主体,分析政府激励政策对博弈双方的影响,运用动态复制方程得出博弈均衡点,对系统进行稳定性分析。依据文献分析结合企业调研设定模型参数,运用MATLAB软件绘制演化路径,对算例进行仿真分析,开发商开发意愿概率与消费者购买意愿概率最终呈现趋向1的趋势。根据模型演化结果提出决策建议,装配式建筑市场应通过完善标准化体系、强化科技支撑、优化市场环境等手段进一步降低装配式建筑的增量成本,持续推动装配式建筑健康发展。
Energy saving and emission reduction of prefabricated buildings play an important role in promoting the low-carbon development of the construction industry,and local governments around China have issued incentive policies to promote the development of prefabricated buildings.Under the guidance of government incentive policies,taking developers and consumers as the main players of the game between the supply and demand of prefabricated buildings,the influence of government incentive policies on both sides of the game is analyzed,and the game equilibrium point is obtained by using the dynamic replication equation to analyze the stability of the system.According to literature analysis and enterprise research,model parameters are set,evolution path is drawn by Matlab software,and simulation analysis is carried out on the example.The probability of developer’s development intention and consumer’s purchase intention eventually show a trend of 1.According to the results of model evolution,the decision-making suggestions are proposed.The prefabricated building market should further reduce the incremental cost of prefabricated buildings by improving the standardization system,strengthening the scientific and technological support,optimizing the market environment and other means,and continue to promote the healthy development of prefabricated buildings.
作者
孙玉芳
SUN Yufang(School of Smart City Engineering,Qingdao Huanghai University,Qingdao 266427,Shandong,China)
出处
《建筑节能(中英文)》
2025年第11期148-153,共6页
Building Energy Efficiency
基金
山东省属普通本科高校教师访学研修经费资助。
关键词
“双碳”目标
政府激励政策
装配式建筑
演化博弈
Dual Carbon Goals
government incentive policies
prefabricated buildings
evolutionary game
