摘要
现代煤化工是中国立足能源资源禀赋发展起来的特色产业。截至2023年底,中国煤制油、煤(甲醇)制烯烃、煤制乙二醇、煤制气产能分别达到931万吨/年、1872万吨/年、1143万吨/年、74.55亿立方米/年;已形成产业大型化、集中化、基地化发展格局,多数项目位于内蒙古、陕西、新疆、山西、宁夏;产业技术总体在国际上处于领先水平。中国发展现代煤化工产业具有资源和技术装备自主可控、高油价下成本优势凸显、生产含氧化学品有优势等有利条件,同时存在原料碳氢比高、水资源与煤炭资源逆向分布、碳达峰碳中和约束下面临资产搁浅风险等劣势。建议:将煤基油气纳入保障油气供应综合战略视野,促进产品高端化差异化发展,推动产业绿色低碳融合发展。
The modern coal chemical industry represents a distinctive industrial sector developed by China in line with its energy resource endowment.By the end of 2023,China’s production capacities for coal-to-oil,coal(methanol)-to-olefins,coal-to-ethylene glycol,and coal-to-natural gas reached 9.31 million tons/year,18.72 million tons/year,11.43 million tons/year,and 7.455 billion cubic meters/year,respectively.A large-scale,centralized,and base-oriented development pattern has taken shape,with the majority of projects located in Inner Mongolia,Shanxi,Xinjiang,Shaanxi,and Ningxia.Overall,the industry’s technology has reached an internationally leading level.The development of China’s modern coal chemical industry benefits from such favorable conditions as resource independence and technological self-sufficiency,significant cost advantages under high oil prices,and strengths in producing oxygenated chemicals.However,the industry also faces challenges including high hydrocarbon consumption per unit of feedstock,the mismatch between water resource availability and coal resource distribution,and potential asset stranding risks under carbon peaking and carbon neutrality constraints.The paper proposes to integrate coal-derived oil and gas into the overall strategy for ensuring oil and gas supply security,advance high-end and differentiated product development,and promote the integrated development of green and low-carbon practices within the industry.
作者
许浩
高慧
吴谋远
XU Hao;GAO Hui;WU Mouyuan(CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2025年第9期10-18,共9页
International Petroleum Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目支持(项目编号:72274204)。
关键词
现代煤化工
产业政策
能源安全
能源转型
modern coal chemical industry
industrial policy
energy security
energy transition
