摘要
[目的]耕地“非粮化”现象对粮食生产构成潜在威胁,江西省作为我国重要的粮食主产区,地形地貌复杂、农业基础良好,同时也是城镇化快速发展的地区,耕地“非粮化”问题具有较强代表性。[方法]本研究以江西省县域为研究单元,结合2002-2022年社会统计、气象及地理空间数据,通过空间自相关分析、标准差椭圆法,系统探析江西省耕地“非粮化”过程的时空演变格局,并借助地理探测器分析其主导驱动机制。[结果](1)江西省耕地“非粮化”水平整体呈“U”型演变趋势,而其耕地“非粮化”年均水平为33.74%,高于全国均值,空间分布呈现“南北高—中部低”的集聚格局,赣北与赣南为“非粮化”重灾区,鄱阳湖平原流域则以轻度区为主。(2)耕地“非粮化”空间分布方向性增强,重心南移且趋于均衡,全局空间自相关显著(Moran’sI>0),局部高值集聚区稳定分布于赣北。(3)城镇化率(q=0.733)、油料作物面积比例(q=0.660)及地均生产总值(q=0.608)是主要驱动因素,因子交互作用以非线性增强为主,人均耕地面积、粮食单产与油料作物比例的交互效应尤为显著。[结论]建议通过推动耕地用途分类管控与差异化管理、完善粮食收益保障机制和协调城镇化与农业发展,以遏制耕地“非粮化”趋势,保障粮食安全与农业可持续发展。
[Objective]Food security is a cornerstone of national security.The increasing trend of cropland“non-grain production”poses a potential threat to grain production.Jiangxi Province,a major grain-producing region in China characterized by complex topography,a robust agricultural foundation,and rapid urbanization,presents a highly representative case for studying this issue.[Methods]Using counties in Jiangxi Province as the research units,this study integrates socioeconomic,meteorological,and geospatial data from 2002 to 2022.Spatial autocorrelation analysis and the standard deviation ellipse method were applied to systematically examine the spatiotemporal evolution of cropland“non-grain production”,while the Geographical Detector model was employed to identify its dominant driving mechanisms.[Results](1)The level of cropland“non-grain production”in Jiangxi exhibited a“U-shaped”trend over the study period,with an average annual rate of 33.74%,exceeding the national average.Spatially,it displayed a clustered pattern of“high in the north and south,low in the central region”.Northern and southern Jiangxi was severely affected areas,whereas the Poyang Lake Plain was predominantly characterized by light non-grain production.(2)The spatial distribution of cropland“non-grain production”showed increased directionality,with a southward shift and greater dispersion of its center of gravity.Significant global spatial autocorrelation(Moran’s I>0)was observed,and local high-value clusters were consistently concentrated in northern Jiangxi.(3)The urbanization rate(q=0.733),proportion of oil crop cultivation area(q=0.660),and GDP per unit land area(q=0.608)were identified as the primary driving factors.Factor interactions were predominantly nonlinear enhancements,with particularly notable interaction effects among per capita cultivated land area,grain yield per unit area,and oil crop ratio.[Conclusion]To curb the trend of cropland“non-grain production”and ensure food security and sustainable agricultural development,this study recommended implementing land-use classification and differentiated management,improving grain income security mechanisms,and promoting coordinated development between urbanization and agriculture.
作者
车奇风
陈星月
关宝文
Che Qifeng;Chen Xingyue;Guan Baowen(State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Resources and Environment,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China;School of Earth and Planetary Sciences,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China)
出处
《山西农业大学学报(自然科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第5期112-124,共13页
Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金(42562008)
核资源与环境国家重点实验室开放基金(2020NRE14)
江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(GJJ2200710)
江西省自然科学基金项目(20252BAC240267)
江西省研究生创新基金(YC2025-S534)。
关键词
耕地非粮化
时空演变
驱动因素
地理探测器
江西省
Farmland non-grain production
Spatiotemporal evolution
Driving factors
Geodetector
Jiangxi Province
