摘要
【目的】水利在“双碳”目标中发挥着关键作用,探究水利措施碳减排潜力对于推动能源结构优化和实现碳中和目标具有重要意义。【方法】基于LEAP模型,结合经济与社会发展政策,采用情景分析法构建基准情景、减排情景和强化减排情景。通过提升水力发电比例、加大地热水利用力度、增加蓝碳生态系统碳汇、居民生活节水及工业节水5种减排手段,对2025—2060年河北省的碳排放情况及各情景下水利措施碳减排贡献度进行预测分析。【结果】结果显示:在基准情景下,河北省2060年碳排放总量达890.54 MtCO_(2)e,期间未出现峰值;减排情景各年碳排放量较基准情景均有下降,但总体趋势一致;强化减排情景于2030年以837.12 MtCO_(2)e碳排放量实现碳达峰,2060年降至831.46 MtCO_(2)e,水利措施碳减排潜力达59.08 MtCO_(2)e,占碳排放量的6.63%。就减排贡献率而言,提升水力发电比例和加大地热水资源利用力度是最有效的水利减排措施,两者贡献近九成碳减排量;蓝碳生态系统碳汇和节水措施虽占比相对较小,但仍对减排具有积极作用。【结论】结果表明:水利措施在河北省实现“双碳”目标中具有显著的碳减排潜力;未来应进一步优化水利措施,尤其是加强水力发电和地热资源的开发利用,同时兼顾蓝碳生态系统和节水措施的推广,以最大化水利措施在碳减排中的作用;还需各项措施在时间和空间上有效衔接,通过系统化和协调化的运作,实现预期的减排效果。研究可为河北省充分发挥水利行业碳减排作用、尽早实现“双碳”目标提供参考。
[Objective]Water conservancy plays a critical role in“dual carbon”strategy.Exploring the carbon reduction potential of water conservancy measures is essential for promoting the optimization of energy structure and achieving carbon neutrality.[Methods]Based on the LEAP model and combined with economic and social development policies,scenario analysis was adopted to establish the baseline,emission reduction,and enhanced emission reduction scenarios.By employing five emission reduction measures—increasing the proportion of hydroelectric power generation,expanding geothermal water utilization,enhancing blue carbon ecosystem carbon sinks,promoting water conservation in residential and industrial sectors—the study predicted and analyzed carbon emissions and the contribution of water conservancy measures to carbon reduction under each scenario in Hebei Province from 2025 to 2060.[Results]The result showed that under the baseline scenario,Hebei Province’s total carbon emissions would reach 890.54 MtCO_(2)e by 2060,with no peak observed during this period.Under the emission reduction scenario,annual carbon emissions would decrease compared to the baseline,but the overall trend would remain the same.Under the enhanced emission reduction scenario,carbon emissions would peak at 837.12 MtCO_(2)e in 2030 and decrease to 831.46 MtCO_(2)e by 2060.The carbon reduction potential of water conservancy measures would reach 59.08 MtCO_(2)e,accounting for 6.63%of total carbon emissions.In terms of emission reduction contribution,increasing the proportion of hydroelectric power generation and expanding the use of geothermal resources were the most effective water conservancy measures,contributing nearly 90% of the total carbon reduction.Although the contributions of blue carbon ecosystem carbon sinks and water-saving measures were relatively small,they still played a positive role in emission reduction.[Conclusion]The result indicate that water conservancy measures have significant carbon reduction potential in achieving the“dual carbon”goals in Hebei Province.In the future,water conservancy measures should be further optimized,particularly by strengthening the development and utilization of hydroelectric power and geothermal resources,while also promoting blue carbon ecosystems and water-saving measures to maximize their role in carbon reduction.Additionally,the effective coordination of these measures in both time and space,through systematic and coordinated operations,is essential to achieve the expected emission reduction outcomes.This study provides reference for Hebei Province to fully leverage the carbon reduction role of the water conservancy sector and achieve the“dual carbon”goals as early as possible.
作者
明宇
潘增辉
魏丽贤
杨飒
刘宏权
MING Yu;PAN Zenghui;WEI Lixian;YANG Sa;LIU Hongquan(College of Urban and Rural Construction,Agricultural University of Hebei,Baoding 071001,Hebei,China;Hebei Institute of Water Conservancy Science,Shijiazhuang 050057,Hebei,China)
出处
《水利水电技术(中英文)》
北大核心
2025年第9期95-107,共13页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
河北省水利科技计划(2023-41)
河北省重点研发项目(223742205D)
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401404)。
关键词
碳排放
减排潜力
水利行业
LEAP模型
情景分析
影响因素
carbon emissions
mitigation potential
water conservancy sector
LEAP model
scenario analysis
influencing factors
