摘要
针对应急物资需求具有不确定性与阶段性特征,在现有政企联合储备模型基础上,从政府视角出发,以最小化总储备成本为目标,构建一个两阶段随机规划模型。该模型考虑物资供需依赖于灾害强度的假设,引入灾后分期交付机制,将传统缺货成本替代为需求满足概率的机会约束,规避了复杂的缺货量化操作,并结合2004~2020年北京市历史灾情数据进行算例分析,验证了期权契约在联合储备中的适用性,对满足概率、库存成本等关键参数进行了敏感性分析,得出分期交付机制相比于传统单期交付更节省配送成本、降低供应风险的结论。
To address the uncertainty and staged nature of demand for emergency relief materials,this paper develops a two-stage stochastic programming model from the perspective of the government,building upon existing public-private joint reserve models and aiming to minimize the total reserve cost.The model incorporates the assumption that both supply and demand of materials are dependent on disaster intensity,introduces a post-disaster staged delivery mechanism,and replaces traditional shortage cost formulations with chance constraints on demand satisfaction probabilities,thereby avoiding the need for complex shortage quantification.Using historical disaster data from Beijing between 2004 and 2020,a case study is conducted to examine the applicability of option contracts in joint reserve planning.Sensitivity analyses on key parameters,such as service level probability and inventory cost,suggest that compared to conventional single-stage delivery,the staged delivery mechanism is more cost-effective and reduces supply risks.
作者
王林
邹靖
王思睿
WANG Lin;ZOU Jing;WANG Sirui(Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,China;Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan,China)
出处
《管理学报》
北大核心
2025年第9期1734-1742,共9页
Chinese Journal of Management
基金
国家社会科学基金资助重大项目(20&ZD126)。
关键词
应急物资储备
期权契约
灾害强度
emergency supplies reserves
option contract
disaster intensity
