摘要
海洋经济韧性是指海洋经济系统在面对外部冲击、干扰和不确定性时,能够保持、恢复或重组关键功能和结构的能力。构建具有韧性的海洋经济体系对于应对外部冲击、推动海洋经济高质量发展具有关键作用。将中国38个沿海城市2006—2022年的面板数据作为样本,构建由抵抗与恢复能力、适应与调整能力和转型与创新能力组成的海洋经济韧性指标体系,对中国沿海城市及三大海洋经济圈海洋经济韧性的区域差异、动态演进及收敛性开展研究。结果显示,沿海城市海洋经济韧性总体上呈现出上升趋势,转型与创新能力增长较为缓慢;沿海城市海洋经济韧性差异日益显著,超变密度成为总体差异的主要来源;北部、南部海洋经济圈海洋经济韧性呈现单峰分布,东部海洋经济圈呈现双峰分布,表明出现明显的两极分化特征;全国、北部、南部海洋经济圈不存在σ收敛,东部海洋经济圈存在σ收敛,但均存在条件β收敛,说明各区域海洋经济韧性差异在长期会收敛到各自的稳态水平。根据研究结论,从推动科技创新和产业升级双轮驱动、开展“政策—产业—基础设施”三大协同、实施差异化发展策略三个角度提出建议,为提升中国沿海城市海洋经济韧性、促进海洋经济健康发展提供参考。
Marine economic resilience refers to the ability of the marine economic system to maintain,restore,or reorganize key functions and structures in the face of external shocks,disturbances,and uncertainties.Building a resilient marine economic system plays a key role in coping with external shocks and promoting the high-quality development of the marine economy.Using panel data from 38 coastal cities in China from 2006 to 2022 as samples,a resilience index system for the marine economy was constructed,consisting of resistance and recovery capacity,adaptation and adjustment capacity,and transformation and innovation capacity.The regional differences,dynamic evolution,and convergence of marine economic resilience in the country and the three major marine economic circles were studied.The results show that the marine economic resilience of coastal cities generally demonstrates an upward trend,with transformation and innovation capacity growing relatively slowly.The differences in marine economic resilience among coastal cities have become increasingly significant,and transvariation intensity has become the main source of overall differences.The marine economic resilience in the northern and southern marine economic circles shows a unimodal distribution,while the eastern marine economic circle shows a bimodal distribution,indicating obvious polarization characteristics.There is noσconvergence in the national,northern,and southern marine economic circles,whileσconvergence exists in the eastern marine economic circle.However,βconditional convergence exists in all regions,indicating that differences in marine economic resilience across regions will converge to their respective steady-state levels in the long term.Based on these research findings,several recommendations are proposed from three perspectives:promoting the dual drivers of scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading,carrying out the three synergies of policy,industry and infrastructure,and implementing differentiated development strategies,to provide a reference for improving marine economic resilience in China′s coastal cities and promoting the healthy development of the marine economy.
作者
张卓群
韩爱玉
孙念新
Zhang Zhuoqun;Han Aiyu;Sun Nianxin(Research Institute for Eco-civilization,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100710,China;School of Public Finance and Taxation,Hebei University of Economics and Business,Shijiazhuang 050061,China)
出处
《中国海洋大学学报(社会科学版)》
2025年第6期12-27,共16页
Journal of Ocean University of China(Social Sciences)
基金
国家社会科学基金重大研究专项(23VHQ019)
中国社会科学院智库基础研究项目“中国沿海城市海洋经济韧性研究”(ZKJC241204)。
关键词
海洋经济韧性
区域差异
动态演进
收敛性
marine economic resilience
regional differences
dynamic evolution
convergence
