摘要
有效防控地方政府债务尤其是隐性债务风险,已成为当前中国经济工作的重点任务之一,事关守住不发生系统性风险底线目标的实现。借助优化的KMV模型通过数理演绎系统诠释了现代金融监管能够通过影响地方政府的财政收入稳健性形成对债务风险的动态调节。利用2015—2025年中国31个省区市的月度平衡面板数据实证检验,结果显示,现代金融监管对地方政府隐性债务风险存在显著的抑制作用,这一结论在通过稳健性检验与内生性检验后依然成立。深入分析发现,地方政府的财政汲取能力在现代金融监管影响地方政府隐性债务风险的过程中发挥着关键机制作用。同时,市场化水平和财政透明度是调节现代金融监管对地方政府隐性债务风险作用强度的重要因素。基于此,有必要将宏观审慎政策延伸至财政领域,阻断“土地—财政—债务”的顺周期链条,强化问责与市场化化解机制,着力建立透明、高效、协同的债务治理体系,结合不同地区制度环境,因地制宜推动财政金融体制改革,实现防范化解地方政府隐性债务风险的目标。
Effective prevention and control of local government debt,especially hidden debt risk,has become one of the core tasks of China’s current economic work,which is related to the realization of the goal of keeping the bottom line of systemic risk.With the help of the optimized KMV model,the paper systematically explains that modern financial regulation can form a dynamic regulation of debt risk by affecting the fiscal revenue robustness of local governments.Using the monthly balanced panel data of 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in China from 2015 to 2025,the empirical test shows that the improvement of modern financial regulation has a significant inhibitory effect on the implicit debt risk of local governments.This conclusion is still true after passing the robustness test and endogenous test.Through in-depth analysis,it is found that the fiscal absorptive capacity of local governments plays a key mechanism role in the process of modern financial regulation affecting the hidden debt risk of local governments.At the same time,the level of Marketization and the fiscal transparency are important factors to adjust the intensity of the role of modern financial regulation on the hidden debt risk of local governments.Based on this,it is necessary to extend the macro Prudential policy to the financial field,block the pro cyclical chain of“land finance debt”,strengthen the accountability and market-based resolution mechanism,strive to establish a transparent,efficient and collaborative debt governance system,and promote the reform of the financial system according to local conditions in combination with the institutional environment in different regions,so as to achieve the goal of preventing and resolving the hidden debt risk of local governments.
作者
张晓燕
李佳玉
陈逸非
ZHANG Xiao-yan;LI Jia-yu;CHEN Yi-fei(School of Economics,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030006,China)
出处
《经济问题》
北大核心
2025年第11期83-94,共12页
On Economic Problems
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“现代金融监管与系统性金融风险防范研究”(23BJY115)。
关键词
现代金融监管
地方政府隐性债务风险
城投债
地方政府隐性债务治理
modern financial regulation
hidden debt risk of local governments
city investment bond
governance of hidden debt of local governments
