摘要
促进畜禽产业高质量发展是落实大食物观、建设农业强国的必然要求。本文首先从理论层面深入分析我国鸡肉和猪肉之间的价格传导机理,然后通过VAR-BEKKGARCH模型及分位数回归,实证检验猪肉价格与鸡肉价格的相互影响。研究结果表明:我国鸡肉价格和猪肉价格之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;鸡肉价格和猪肉价格之间存在显著的双向均值溢出效应,后者对前者存在单向显著波动溢出效应;当鸡肉价格处于较低水平时,猪肉价格波动对鸡肉价格的影响程度略低,但差异并不明显;猪肉价格水平越高,鸡肉价格对猪肉价格的边际影响越大。据此,在大食物观下,应加强畜禽产业发展的顶层设计和政策保障,提升畜禽产业信息化水平,构建畜禽产品全国统一大市场。
Promoting the high-quality development of the livestock and poultry sector is essential for achieving the Greater Food Approach and building a strong agricultural nation.This study initiates with a thorough theoretical analysis of the price transmission mechanism between chicken and pork in China.It then proceeds to an empirical investigation of the relationship between pork and chicken prices using the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model and quantile regression methods.The findings indicate a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between chicken and pork prices in China.Additionally,there exists a significant bidirectional mean spllover effect between the prices of these two meats,with pork prices exhibiting a notable unidirectional volatility spillover effect on chicken prices.When chicken prices are relatively low,the impact of pork price fluctuations on chicken prices is somewhat reduced,although this difference lacks statistical significance.Conversely,as pork prices increase,the marginal effect of chicken prices on pork prices becomes more pronounced.Therefore,in accordance with the Greater Food Approach,it is crucial to enhance top-level design and policy support for the livestock and poultry industry,improve the industry's information technology capabilities,and establish an integrated national market for livestock and poultry products.
作者
谢宁
李颖
刘小春
翁贞林
XIE Ning;LI Ying;LIU Xiaochun;WENG Zhenlin(College of Economics and Management,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang 330045;Jiangxi Rural Revitalization Strategy Research Institute,Nanchang 330045)
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2025年第7期172-177,共6页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
江西省社会科学基金项目“规模养殖户政策性肉鸡保险购买行为、溢出效应及引导政策研究”(25YJ21)
江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目“新冠肺炎疫情对江西省肉鸡产业链价格波动的影响及应对措施研究——以宁都黄鸡为例”(GL22233)
江西省现代农业产业技术体系产业经济岗专家项目(JXARS-09)。
关键词
鸡肉价格
猪肉价格
价格传导
分位数回归
chicken price
pork price
price transmission
quantile regression method
