摘要
自特朗普第二任期以来,“五眼联盟”呈现出明显的松散化趋势,主要表现为政治共识削弱、情报互信下降及战略功能分化。其背后既有特朗普“美国优先”与交易化外交逻辑的直接冲击,及其对美国情报体系政治化改革的影响,也有英、澳、加、新四国在安全焦虑驱动下推进战略自主的深层动因。未来“五眼联盟”或将在功能分层的“同心圆”结构下维持运作,其合作呈现出政治疏离与情报紧密、“小圈子化”与“内圈+”并行的多层合作格局,同时具有潜在的可逆性,这将使联盟陷入长期战略规划真空、外部信誉受损和整体效能下降的困境。
Since Trump's return to office in 2025,the Five Eyes alliance has shown a trend toward fragmentation.This shift is evident in the weakening of political consensus,declining trust in intelligence sharing,and growing divergence in members'strategic priorities.The underlying cohesion of the alliance has been undermined by Trump's"America First"doctrine and his transactional approach to foreign policy,as well as by the politicization of the US intelligence community.At the same time,the UK,Australia,Canada,and New Zealand have been forced to pursue greater strategic autonomy due to rising security concerns.Looking ahead,the alliance is likely to evolve into a functionally layered concentric circle structure,characterized by political distancing alongside close intelligence ties and a multi-layered pattern of cooperation.Although this emerging structure retains a certain degree of reversibility,it carries significant risks.In particular,it may leave the alliance without a coherent long-term strategy,erode its external credibility,and weaken its effectiveness in responding to shared challenges.
作者
唐小松
王雅萍
Tang Xiaosong;Wang Yaping
出处
《现代国际关系》
北大核心
2025年第10期74-93,130,共21页
基金
2020年国家社会科学基金重点项目“美国对华战略调整下的‘五眼联盟’转型与我国对策研究”(编号:20AGJ005)的阶段性成果。
