摘要
汇率变动是微观主体开展对外贸易面临的主要风险之一,然而随着全球分工的细化,汇率变动与出口贸易水平的关系日渐疏离,出口汇率弹性弱化。文章以GVC嵌入位置为切入点,剖析了中国GVC位置指标数据,并利用三维固定效应模型进行了实证检验。结果表明,GVC位置攀升显著削弱了出口汇率弹性,且这种削弱作用在人民币升值时期弱于人民币贬值时期、在高技术行业强于低技术行业。由此提出重视汇率风险、努力提升GVC位置、审慎对待政策效果、制定差异化贸易政策等建议,平抑汇率变动的冲击、稳定出口贸易。
Exchange rate fluctuations remain one of the primary risks for micro-economic entities in foreign trade.However,with the deepening of global division of labor,the correlation between exchange rate changes and export trade levels has gradually weakened,leading to a decline in export exchange rate elasticity.Taking the embedding position in the Global Value Chain(GVC)as the entry point,this paper analyzes China’s GVC position index data,and conducts an empirical test using a three-dimensional fixed-effects model.The results show that climbing up the GVC significantly weakens export exchange rate elasticity.This weakening effect is more pronounced during RMB depreciation than appreciation,and more significant in high-tech industries than low-tech sectors.Based on these findings,the study proposes suggestions including enhancing awareness of exchange rate risks,promoting GVC position upgrading,adopting a cautious approach to policy effects,and formulating differentiated trade policies,with the aim of mitigating exchange rate shocks and stabilizing export trade.
作者
袁玺葳
YUAN Xi-wei(Wuxi Vocational Institute of Commerce,Wuxi 214000,China)
出处
《乌鲁木齐职业大学学报》
2025年第3期33-41,共9页
Journal of Urumqi Vocational University
基金
无锡商业职业技术学院校级课题基金“全球价值链嵌入位置对中国出口汇率弹性的影响研究”(编号:KJXJ23412)的阶段性研究成果。
关键词
全球价值链位置
出口汇率弹性
汇率传递效应
GVC position
export exchange rate elasticity
exchange rate pass-through effect
