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Temperature and water availability drive vegetation resilience dynamics in China: An empirical study from causal perspective

温度与水分可用性驱动了中国植被恢复力动态——基于因果视角的实证研究
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摘要 Understanding the characteristics and driving factors behind changes in vegetation ecosystem resilience is crucial for mitigating both current and future impacts of climate change. Despite recent advances in resilience research, significant knowledge gaps remain regarding the drivers of resilience changes. In this study, we investigated the dynamics of ecosystem resilience across China and identified potential driving factors using the kernel normalized difference vegetation index(kNDVI) from 2000 to 2020. Our results indicate that vegetation resilience in China has exhibited an increasing trend over the past two decades, with a notable breakpoint occurring around 2012. We found that precipitation was the dominant driver of changes in ecosystem resilience, accounting for 35.82% of the variation across China, followed by monthly average maximum temperature(Tmax) and vapor pressure deficit(VPD), which explained 28.95% and 28.31% of the variation, respectively. Furthermore, we revealed that daytime and nighttime warming has asymmetric impacts on vegetation resilience, with temperature factors such as Tmin and Tmax becoming more influential, while the importance of precipitation slightly decreases after the resilience change point. Overall, our study highlights the key roles of water availability and temperature in shaping vegetation resilience and underscores the asymmetric effects of daytime and nighttime warming on ecosystem resilience.
作者 WU Jiapei ZHAO Qikang ZHOU Yuke NI Yong FAN Junfu 吴家培;赵启康;周玉科;倪永;范俊甫
出处 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 2025年第10期2069-2090,共22页 地理学报(英文版)
基金 National Key Research and Development Program,No.2021xjkk0303。
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