摘要
农业产业链韧性建设对夯实“三农”压舱石、建设农业强国至关重要。论文基于2011—2022年中国中部80个地级区域面板数据,采用熵权法测度农业产业链韧性,运用核密度估计法和地理探测器等探究其时空分异及影响因素。结果表明:(1)时间维度上,中部农业产业链韧性整体不断增强,南方片区韧性略高于北方片区;(2)空间维度上,中部农业产业链韧性存在显著的空间相关性,高韧性区域由湖南湖北向秦岭—淮河线扩展,Dagum基尼系数分析验证其南北片区的不均衡性;(3)运用地理探测器分析发现,物流配送能力、经济发展与消费能力等是中部农业产业链韧性时空分异的关键影响因子,农业技术研发水平与农业劳动力数量等交互作用能显著影响韧性发展,驱动强度正从传统要素依赖向技术创新与市场需求转变。基于此,研究提出加强农业科技创新和农村物流配送等基础建设、推进区域间农业社会化服务等产业链协作、完善涉农政策与风险防控体系等政策建议促进中部地区农业产业链韧性发展。
Agricultural industrial chain resilience is crucial for ensuring stable production and increased output of national grain and key agricultural products.Based on the panel data from 80 prefecture-level regions in central China from 2011 to 2022,this study measured agricultural industrial chain resilience using the entropy weight method,and investigated its spatiotemporal differentiation patterns and influencing factors through kernel density estimation and geographical detector analysis.The findings reveal that:1)From a temporal perspective,the resilience of the agricultural industrial chain in China's central region has demonstrated a consistent strengthening trend,with the southern zone exhibiting marginally higher resilience levels compared to the northern zone.2)From a spatial perspective,the resilience of agricultural industrial chain in central China exhibited significant spatial correlation.High-resilience regions have expanded from Hunan and Hubei toward the Qinling-Huaihe line.Dagum Gini coefficient analysis confirmed the pronounced regional disparity between northern and southern regions.3)Geographical detector analysis identified logistics distribution capability,economic development level,and consumption capacity as key influencing factors.Interactive effects between agricultural technology R&D and labor supply significantly enhanced resilience,indicating an ongoing transition of driving forces from traditional production factors to technological innovation and market demand.Policy recommendations include:strengthening infrastructure such as agricultural technology innovation and rural logistics distribution;advancing industrial chain collaboration through cross-regional agricultural professional services;and institutionalizing agriculture-related policies and risk governance frameworks.This research provides empirical evidence and decision-making references for optimizing agricultural industrial layouts in central China.
作者
曾雄旺
张湘琦
左声亮
杨文涛
ZENG Xiongwang;ZHANG Xiangqi;ZUO Shengliang;YANG Wentao(School of Business,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha 410128,China;National-Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of Geo-Spatial Information Technology,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,Hunan,China)
出处
《地理科学进展》
北大核心
2025年第9期1807-1818,共12页
Progress in Geography
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(24BGL172)。
关键词
农业产业链韧性
时空分异
中国中部
地级区域
resilience of agricultural industrial chain
spatiotemporal differentiation
central China region
prefecture level regions
