摘要
【目的】针对电压越限严重度影响较大,使得刀闸操作风险量化准确性较低的问题,本文提出基于熵权-灰色层次分析的刀闸操作风险量化评估算法。【方法】利用数据挖掘技术获取刀闸行为发生时的设备输出信号;定义刀闸操作风险状态,计算电压越限的严重程度;结合样本离散化函数,提取刀闸操作风险特征;引入状态转移矩阵分解刀闸操作风险特征项和风险趋势项,以掌握刀闸操作的风险趋势;利用熵权-灰色层次分析法计算各分解趋势项的组合权重,明确刀闸操作风险评估等级,由此实现对刀闸操作风险的量化评估。【结果】实验结果表明:在不同电压越限概率条件下,所提方法的风险评估相对误差始终控制在0.4以下。【结论】刀闸操作风险量化评估结果准确,可以较为准确地判断刀闸操作风险。
[Purpose]In response to the problem that the severity of voltage exceeding the limit has a significant impact on the accuracy of quantifying the risk of knife switch operation,this paper proposes a knife switch operation risk quantification evaluation algorithm based on entropy weight grey analytic hierarchy process.[Methods]Use data mining techniques to obtain the device output signals when the knife switch behavior occurs.Define the risk status of knife switch operation and calculate the severity of voltage exceeding the limit.Extract the risk characteristics of knife switch operation by combining the sample discretization function.Introducing a state transition matrix to decompose the risk characteristics and trends of knife switch operations,in order to grasp the risk trends of knife switch operations.Using entropy weight grey analytic hierarchy process to calculate the combined weights of each decomposition trend item,clarify the risk assessment level of knife switch operation,and thus achieve quantitative evaluation of knife switch operation risk.[Results]The experimental results show that under different voltage limit probability conditions,the relative error of the risk assessment of the proposed method is always controlled below 0.4.[Conclusions]The quantitative assessment of the risk of knife switch operation is accurate and can accurately determine the risk of knife switch operation.
作者
阳晟
谢代钰
刘津铭
傅源
陈章国
YANG Sheng;XIE Daiyu;LIU Jinming;FU Yuan;CHEN Zhangguo(Power Dispatching Control Center,Guangxi Power Grid,Nanning,Guangxi 530000,China;NARI Information&Communication Technology Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210003,China)
基金
中国南方电网有限责任公司科技项目“调控行为辅助防误及评价关键技术研究”(GXKJXM20222171)。
关键词
熵权-灰色层次分析
刀闸操作风险
量化评估
风险指标
entropy weight grey analytic hierarchy process
operational risk of knife switch
quantitative evaluation
risk indicators
