摘要
学龄人口变动是影响中国未来学校建设的关键动因。学龄人口整体规模、区域分布、学段结构、生源质量的变动,深刻影响着中国未来学校的建设规模、宏观布局、资源配置和变革取向。这种变动为中国未来学校的建设带来了新的挑战,具体表现为:“小校”与“大校”的规模两难,“城校”与“乡校”的资源失衡,“管校”与“办校”的体制掣肘。为应对上述挑战,中国未来学校的目标定位需从“同质塑造”转向“个性培养”,建设思路需从“模型预测”转向“战略前瞻”,资源配置需从“标准供给”转向“精准响应”。基于此,适应学龄人口变化的中国未来学校建设应着力塑造弹性化的学校布局结构,创设智能化的资源管理体系,完善多元化的协同治理机制,从而系统性地推进未来学校的高质量发展。
School-age population changes are a fundamental factor affecting China’s future school construction.Changes in the overall scale,regional distribution,educational stage structure,and student source quality of the school-age population profoundly impact the construction scale,macro layout,resource allocation,and reform orientation of China’s future schools.These changes bring new challenges to China’s future school construction,specifically manifested as:the scale dilemma between“small schools”and“large schools,”the resource imbalance between“urban schools”and“rural schools,”and the institutional constraints between“school management”and“school operation.”To address these challenges,the goal positioning of China’s future schools needs to shift from“homogeneous shaping”to“individualized cultivation,”the construction approach needs to shift from“model prediction”to“strategic foresight,”and resource allocation needs to shift from“standardized supply”to“precise response.”Based on this,China’s future school construction that adapts to changes in the school-age population should focus on shaping flexible school layout structures,establishing intelligent resource management systems,and improving diversified collaborative governance mechanisms,thereby systematically advancing the high-quality development of future schools.
作者
盖平运
戴孟
卜玉华
Gai Pingyun;Dai Meng;Bu Yuhua(Faculty of Education,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062;School of Educational Sciences,Jiangsu Second Normal University,Nanjing 210000,Jiangsu;Institute of Basic Education Reform and Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062)
出处
《中国电化教育》
北大核心
2025年第10期29-37,共9页
China Educational Technology
基金
国家社会科学基金2021年度教育学重大课题“未来学校组织形态与制度重构的理论与实践研究”(课题编号:VFA210006)研究成果。
关键词
学龄人口
人口变化
未来学校
学校变革
未来学
school-age population
population changes
future schools
school reform
futurology
