摘要
概率预报的基本思想是利用地震历史中表现出来的统计规律去推测未来。在一定概率意义下,给出下次地震可能发生的时间界限,或是在指定时间内,给出地震发生的概率,对于研究地震区域划分,提供抗震烈度等问题都是有一定意义的。这里仅从地震序列本身提取预报信息,没有考虑发震时间与各种前兆观测的关系,也没有考虑时间与地点和强度的相关。
In this paper we make use of the property that the time interval sequence of earthquakes follows the logarithimic normal distribution as accepted by the test of normality.Taking the Kantze-Kangting(甘孜-康定)seismic region as an example,stationary independent stochastic forcasting model is described,and taking the North-South trending seismic zone of Western China as an example,an independent stochastic forcasting model with linear trend is given,and taking the Chilien-Luliang-Holan Mountain(祁连-吕梁-贺兰山)seismic region as an example,the stationary Markov stochastic foreasting model is shown.Eventually abtained is the probability of the occurance of a high magnitude seismic event in a given period of time,or a certain probability sense the time interval that the next earthquake might occur.The results may be of help to the study on seismic regionalization,resistance to earthquakes and other problems.Finally the article gives a brief discussion on some existing questions of this method.
作者
徐钟济
魏公毅
宋良玉
郁曙君
黄玮琼
HSU CHUNG-TSI;WEI KUNG-YI;SUNG LIANG-YU;YU SHU-CHUN;HUANG WEI-KING
出处
《地球物理学报》
1974年第1期51-72,共22页
Chinese Journal of Geophysics
