摘要
极端强降雨及旱涝急转频发,致滑坡灾害伤人事件不绝,严重影响经济发展和社会稳定。该文以重庆市南川区为研究对象,依托南川区1∶50000地质灾害风险调查工作,选取地形地貌、地层岩性、地质构造、水文地质、植被覆盖率和降雨及人类工程活动7个方面的13个影响因子,使用自然断点法进行因子分级,引入指数熵权模型和地理探测器分别解决信息量模型无穷大值及因子空间异质性问题,计算得到滑坡主控因子。2种研究方法结果较为一致。结果显示,南川区滑坡主控因子及影响最大分级区间值依次为每月平均降雨量(5—8月)、房屋核密度(13.07~112.64)、坡度(8°~30°)、工程地质岩组(层状碎屑岩类较坚硬岩岩组和层状碎屑岩类软岩岩组)、地形湿度指数(-0.19~9.33)和归一化植被指数(normalized difference vegetation index,NDVI)(-0.03~0.52)。地理探测器利用降雨量与时间强相关性,实现滑坡因子分析在时间和空间的有机融合,提高了模型结果精度和可靠性,得到的结果与实际较为相符,表明指数熵权模型和地理探测器在滑坡主控因子分析中具有一定的准确性和可靠性,结果可作为地质灾害风险性评价基础,能够为南川区滑坡防治工作提供技术支撑。
Extreme rainfall and rapid changes between floods and droughts have led to numerous landslides-related casualities,seriously affect economic development and social stability.This paper takes the Nanchuan District of Chongqing as the research object and relies on the 1∶50000 geological disaster risk investigation work in Nanchuan District.Taking into account the thirteen influencing factors from seven aspects,including topography,geological strata and rock types,geological structures,hydrogeology,vegetation coverage rate,precipitation and human engineering activities,the study uses the natural breakpoint method to classify the factors,introduces the index entropy weight model and geodetector to solve the problems of infinite value in the information model and spatial heterogeneity of factors,and calculates the landslide main control factors.The results of the two research methods are generally consistent,showing that the main control factors and the maximum graded interval values of the landslide in Nanchuan District are the monthly average rainfall(from May to August),housing kernel density(13.07~112.64),slope(8°~30°),engineering geological rock group(layered sedimentary rock class with harder rock rock group and layered sedimentary rock class with softer rock rock group),terrain moisture index(-0.19~9.33),and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)(-0.03~0.52).The geodetector uses the strong correlation between rainfall and time to realize the organic integration of landslide factor analysis in time and space,improving the precision and reliability of the model results,and the results obtained are relatively consistent with reality.This shows that the index entropy weight model and geodetector have certain accuracy and reliability in the analysis of landslide main control factors.The results can serve as the basis for geological disaster risk assessment,and provide technical support for landslide prevention and control work in Nanchuan District.
作者
刘东海
姚婷
郭浪
张军
LIU Donghai;YAO Ting;GUO Lang;ZHANG Jun(Chongqing Southeast Sichuan Engineering Survey and Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Chongqing 401120,China)
出处
《自然灾害学报》
北大核心
2025年第5期81-93,共13页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
重庆科技大学科研资助项目(CKRC20231216)。
关键词
滑坡
因子分级
空间异质性
指数熵权模型
地理探测器
主控因子
landslide
factor grading
spatial heterogeneity
exponential entropy weight model
geodetector
main control factor
