摘要
滑坡碎屑流的运动特性深受运动条件与地形参数影响,各地形参数之间相互耦合共同决定了滑坡的最大滑移距离。基于多元回归分析,针对沟谷型和开阔型滑坡,探讨两种地形条件下的滑坡碎屑流运动距离公式的正态性以及各运动参数对滑坡运动距离的定量化关系。结果表明,地形条件影响下,同等规模条件下滑坡碎屑流运动距离呈现差异性。两种运动距离预测模型验证误差均在良好范围内,其中沟谷型对数据拟合度更优。滑坡高差H_(max)对沟谷型和开阔型滑坡均影响显著。沟谷型滑坡运动距离主要受坡型参数φ影响,几乎不受滑坡体积V影响,而开阔型滑坡运动距离受滑源区坡角α、体积V影响更大,同时加速区坡角β对其影响有限。对比经典模型发现沟谷型滑坡和开阔型滑坡预测平均误差分别降低了14.97%和9.55%,通过引入坡型参数φ,一定程度上提高了模型的精度,为滑坡碎屑流的防治与预测提供了新的思考路径。
The movement characteristics of rock avalanche are significantly influenced by movement conditions and topographic parameters,and the interactions among these parameters collectively determine the maximum movement distance of a landslide.This study employs multiple regression analysis to examine the normality of the movement distance formula for rock avalanche under gully type and open type topographic,while quantitatively exploring the relationships between key movement parameters and movement distance.The results reveal that the movement distances of rock avalanche under similar terrain conditions vary significantly.The validation errors of both movement distance prediction models fall within acceptable ranges,with the gully type model demonstrating superior data fit.Among the factors examined,the maximum height difference H_(max) exerts a significant influence on both gully type and open type landslides.For gully type landslides,movement distance is primarily determined by the slope type parameter φ and is minimally affected by landslide volume V.In contrast,for open type landslides,movement distance is significantly influenced by the slope angleαin the source area and landslide volume V,while the slope angle β in the acceleration zone has a limited effect.Compared with classical models,the average prediction error of gully type and open type landslides are reduced by 14.97%and 9.55%,respectively.By introducing the slope type parameter φ,the accuracy of the model is improved to a certain extent.These results provide new insights into the prevention and prediction of rock avalanche.
作者
邓怡武
甘建军
鹿淇瑞
朱颖
DENG Yiwu;GAN Jianjun;LU Qirui;ZHU Ying(School of Water Resources Engineering,Jiangxi University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Nanchang 330099,China;State Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of Water Engineering Safety and Efficient Utilization of Resources in Poyang Lake Basin,Nanchang 330099,China)
出处
《自然灾害学报》
北大核心
2025年第5期70-80,共11页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42162025)
中国中铁股份有限公司科技研究开发计划重大课题(2021-重大-08)
中铁水利水电规划设计集团有限公司课题(地勘-2020ww-2019)。
关键词
滑坡碎屑流
运动距离
地形参数
沟谷型
开阔型
多元回归分析
rock avalanche
movement distance
topographic parameter
gully type
open type
multivariate regression analysis
