摘要
【目的】综合评价区域可持续发展能力,缓解水资源、经济社会和生态环境之间日益加剧的供需矛盾,促进区域可持续发展。【方法】构建了基于水资源、经济社会和生态环境3个维度共25项指标的可持续发展能力评价指标体系,结合EFAST方法和云模型理论对2011—2020年中原城市群可持续发展能力进行了评价。【结果】中原城市群水资源子系统受自然条件制约,可持续发展能力最不稳定;经济社会和生态环境子系统可持续发展能力呈现显著增长态势,可持续发展指数年均增长率分别为2.75%和3.15%;水-经济-生态复合系统整体可持续发展指数的年均增长率为1.71%,核心发展区的年均可持续发展指数(0.603)略优于非核心发展区的年均可持续发展指数(0.586);济源、淮北、郑州是可持续发展指数排名最靠前的三座城市,南阳、驻马店、商丘的可持续发展指数增长幅度最为显著。【结论】中原城市群水-经济-生态可持续发展能力显著提升,并呈现区域差异和类型分化特征,研究结果为探索区域可持续发展路径提供理论依据。
【Objective】To comprehensively evaluate regional sustainable development capacity,alleviate the increasingly intense supply-demand contradiction among water resources,economic and social system,and ecological environment,and promote regional sustainable development.【Methods】This study established an evaluation index system for sustainable development capabilities based on three dimensions of water resources,economic and social system,and ecological environment,with a total of 25 indicators.By integrating the EFAST algorithm and cloud model theory,the study conducted an evaluation of the sustainable development capability of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration(CPUA)from 2011 to 2020.【Results】From 2011 to 2020,the sustainable development capacity of the water resources subsystem in the CPUA was the most unstable due to the constraints of natural conditions.The sustainable development capacity of the economic and social system and ecological environment subsystems showed a significant growth trend,with the average annual growth rates of the sustainable develop-ment index being 2.75%and 3.15%respectively.The average annual growth rate of the overall sustainable development in-dex of the water-economy-ecology composite system was 1.71%.The average annual sustainable development index of the core development area(0.603)was slightly better than that of the non-core development area(0.586).Jiyuan,Huaibei,and Zhengzhou were the top three cities,and Nanyang,Zhumadian,and Shangqiu had the most significant improvements.【Conclusion】The water-economy-ecology sustainable development capacity of the CUPA has shown significant improvement,while demonstrating distinct regional disparities and typological differentiation characteristics.These findings provide a theo-retical basis for exploring pathways towards regional sustainable development.
作者
刘忠哲
魏慧贤
王富强
刘沛衡
杨欢
吕铖
胡嘉庚
LIU Zhongzhe;WEI Huixian;WANG Fuqiang;LIU Peiheng;YANG Huan;LYU Cheng;HU Jiageng(College of Water Resources,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Key Laboratory of Conservation and Intensive Utilization of Water Resources in the Yellow River Basin of Henan Province,Zhengzhou 450046,China)
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第5期99-109,141,共12页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power:Natural Science Edition
基金
农业重大科技专项(NK202319020506)
国家自然科学基金项目(U2443203,52279014)
河南省重点研发与推广专项(科技攻关)(232102320257)
流域生态水文效应与水安全创新型科技团队培育项目(CXTDPY-3)
省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室(西安理工大学)开发研究基金资助课题(2022KFKT-3)。
关键词
水资源-经济社会-生态环境
可持续发展
EFAST方法
云模型理论
中原城市群
water resources-economic and social system-ecological environment
sustainable development
EFAST method
cloud model theory
Central Plains Urban Agglomeration
