摘要
【目的】农业用水安全对于区域粮食安全至关重要,科学评估区域农业用水演变特征已成为保障区域水资源、社会经济、生态环境复杂系统协调可持续发展的重要基础性研究问题。【方法】为深入解析区域农业用水演变特征及未来变化趋势,依据Budyko模型描述的农业用水变化与自然水循环过程之间的相似性假设,构建了基于水资源利用效益最大化原则的区域农业用水最优配置Budyko模型,并将其与系统动力学(SD)模型相结合,提出了基于Budyko-SD耦合模型的区域农业用水演变特征及未来变化趋势分析方法,并将该方法应用于安徽省历史年份农业用水演变特征分析中。【结果】整体来看,安徽省全省单位缺水量造成的农业部门生产损失低于非农业部门对应的生产损失;由于安徽省农业生产占主导地位,皖北、皖中地区农业用水部门保证水平高于非农业用水部门保证水平,而皖南则相反;2023—2026年,安徽省农业用水量将呈现上升趋势,在2026年达到峰值193.8×10^(8) m^(3),在2027—2030年保持稳定。【结论】总体来看,上述研究结果与安徽省历史年份农业用水变化特征及社会经济产业发展统计数据相符,进一步验证了模型计算结果的合理有效性,研究成果可为制定和实施农业用水及产业发展方案提供科学依据。
【Objective】Agricultural water security is crucial for regional food security,and scientific assessment of the evolution characteristics of regional agricultural water use has become an important basic issue to ensure the coordinated and sustainable development of the complex system of regional water resources,social economy,and ecological environment.【Methods】In order to deeply analyze the evolution characteristics and future trends of regional agricultural water use,according to the similarity assumption between agricultural water use variation and natural water cycle process as described by Budyko model,a Budyko model of optimal allocation of regional agricultural water use based on the principle of maximizing the efficiency of water resources utilization was constructed.It was combined with the system dynamics(SD)model,and the Budyko-SD coupling model for analyzing the evolution characteristics and future trend of regional agricultural water use was proposed.【Results】Overall,agricultural production loss per unit water shortage in Anhui Province was lower than that of the non-agricultural sector.The agricultural water use guarantee level in northern and central Anhui was higher than that of the non-agricultural sector due to the dominance of agricultural production in Anhui Province,while the opposite was observed in southern Anhui.Agricultural water consumption in Anhui Province showed an upward trend from 2023 to 2026,reaching a peak of 193.8×10^(8) m^(3) in 2026,and remaining stable in 2027-2030.【Conclusion】In general,the above research results are consistent with the historical characteristics of agricultural water use and the statistical data of social economic and industrial development in Anhui Province,which further verifies the rationality and validity of the model results.The findings can provide a scientific basis for the formulation and implementation of agricultural water use and industrial development schemes.
作者
吴成国
童飞
金菊良
蒋尚明
周玉良
张礼兵
WU Chengguo;TONG Fei;JIN Juliang;JIANG Shangming;ZHOU Yuliang;ZHANG Libing(Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Science and Intelligent Water Conservancy,Hefei 230088,China;College of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Institute of Water Resource and Environmental System Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China)
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第5期78-88,共11页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power:Natural Science Edition
基金
水利水资源安徽省重点实验室开放研究基金(2023SKJ02)
国家自然科学基金项目(U2240223,52209012,42271084)
安徽省自然科学基金项目(2408085ME135)。
关键词
农业用水安全
水资源优化配置
Budyko模型
系统动力学
安徽省
agricultural water security
optimal allocation of water resources
Budyko model
system dynamics
Anhui Province
