摘要
[目的]探究湖南省三生空间未来发展及对未来生境质量评价,兼顾经济、生态发展,对国土空间资源配置和生态安全管理起着重要的作用。[方法]基于1990-2020年土地利用数据,通过土地利用转移矩阵和动态度分析湖南省1990-2020年三生空间构成,使用多目标规划模型构建不同发展情景,利用PLUS、InVEST模型预测和分析不同发展情景土地利用变化。[结果] 1)1990-2020年湖南省生态空间占比最大,约为69.44%,生产空间次之,约占28.74%,生活空间占比最小;生产空间和生态空间转换频繁,生活空间转换面积虽小,变化幅度最大。2)4种情景下均存在生产和生态空间减少、生活空间增加的趋势;生产和生活空间优先发展情景下生活空间增长最快,经济效益最大,是2020年的1.23倍;生态空间优先发展和自然发展情景下生态空间面积降幅小,生态效益较2020年降幅分别为0.098%、0.150%,但经济效益较低;三生空间均衡协调发展情景下保护生态空间的同时满足区域发展的需求,兼顾生态效益和经济效益。3) 1990-2020年湖南省优等级生境质量占比最大,整体生境质量较好,波动不大,有下降态势。模拟得到的2030年生境质量均有小幅度下降。[结论]湖南省2030年生境质量变化不大,三生空间均衡协调发展情景兼顾经济、生态效益,适合地区未来发展。
[Objective]To explore the future development of production-living-ecological space and evaluate the future habitat quality in Hunan Province,considering both economic and ecological development,which plays an important role in the allocation of land spatial resources and ecological security management.[Methods]Based on the land use data from 1990 to 2020,land use transfer matrix and dynamic degree analysis were used to analyze the composition of the production-living-ecological space in Hunan Province in the past 30 years.The multi-object planning model was used to build different development scenarios,and the PLUS and InVEST models were employed to predict and analyze land use changes under these scenarios.[Results]1)From 1990 to 2020,ecological space accounted for the largest proportion in Hunan Province,approximately 69.44%,followed by production space at about 28.74%,and the smallest proportion was living space.Frequent conversion occurred between production and ecological spaces,while the living space conversion,although smaller in area,had the largest variation.2)All four scenarios showed a trend of a reduction in production and ecological spaces,and an increase in living space.In the scenario prioritizing the development of production and living spaces,the growth of living space was the fastest,with the greatest economic benefit,reaching 1.23 times that of 2020.In the scenarios prioritizing ecological development and natural development,the reduction of ecological space was smaller,with the ecological benefits decreasing by 0.098% and 0.150%,respectively,compared to 2020,but the economic benefits were lower.The balanced and coordinated development scenario of the production-living-ecological space protected ecological space while meeting regional development needs,balancing ecological and economic benefits.3)From 1990 to 2020,the proportion of high-quality habitats in Hunan Province was the largest,with relatively good overall habitat quality,showing little fluctuation but with a downward trend.The simulation predicted a slight decline in habitat quality by 2030.[Conclusion]The habitat quality change in Hunan Province by 2030 is expected to be minor.The balanced and coordinated development of the production-living-ecological space,which considers both economic and ecological benefits,is most suitable for the future development of the region.
作者
金欣宇
赵先超
JIN Xinyu;ZHAO Xianchao(School of Urban and Environmental Studies,Hunan University of Technology,Zhuzhou,Hunan 412007,China)
出处
《水土保持学报》
北大核心
2025年第5期309-321,334,共14页
Journal of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(42201230)
湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目(22A0419)。
关键词
三生空间
PLUS
生境质量
湖南省
production-living-ecological space
PLUS
habitat quality
Hunan Province
