摘要
苏禄海由于其活动构造的复杂性以及频繁发生的强烈地震活动面临着较高的海啸风险。然而,针对该地区的地震海啸灾害研究相对匮乏,且现有的研究大多依赖于较为简化的均匀滑移模型进行分析。本研究基于断层几何特征对尼格罗斯-苏禄海沟进行分段,构建非均匀滑移断层模型,利用RupGen程序生成多组不同的断层滑移情景,并通过COMCOT海啸模拟程序进行批量数值模拟。研究结果表明,相比均匀滑移模型,非均匀滑移模型在海啸波传播过程和最大波高分布上存在显著差异,靠近震源区域(如尼格罗斯岛、帕纳伊岛及苏禄群岛)波高增幅可达50%。若任意一断层段产生MW7.8及以上的地震海啸,巴拉望岛最大海啸波高为3~6 m,尼格罗斯岛可达6 m;受卡加延海脊影响,巴拉望岛的罗哈斯、公主港、帕尼坦等半封闭海湾风险更高。苏禄海盆平均水深约3000 m,海啸波传播快,从几分钟到十分钟即可到达靠近震源的沿海地区,1~1.5 h内可影响整个海盆,预警时间有限。本研究聚焦苏禄海潜在海啸风险,揭示其受断层滑移不确定性与复杂性影响的关键特征,为灾害评估与预警提供新视角,对提升预警精准度及优化疏散规划具有重要意义。
The Sulu Sea faces considerable tsunami hazards due to its complex active tectonics and frequent large-magnitude earthquakes.However,detailed tsunami hazard assessments in this region remain limited,and most existing studies largely rely on simplified uniform slip fault models.In this study,we segment the Negros-Sulu Trench based on fault geometry and constructs heterogeneous slip models using the RupGen program to generate multiple stochastic slip scenarios.These scenarios are then used to conduct batch numerical tsunami simulations using the COMCOT model.The results indicate that compared to uniform slip models,heterogeneous slip models exhibit significant differences in tsunami wave propagation and maximum wave height distribution.Near-source areas such as Negros Island,Panay Island,and the Sulu Archipelago may experience an increase in wave height of up to a 50%.If any individual fault segment generates an earthquake of MW 7.8 or greater,the maximum tsunami wave height could reach 3-6 m along the coast of Palawan and up to 6 m on Negros Island.Influenced by the Cagayancillo Ridge,semi-enclosed bays such as Roxas,Puerto Princesa,and Panitian on Palawan are at higher tsunami risk.Given the average depth of approximately 3000 m in the Sulu Basin,tsunami waves propagate rapidly,reaching nearby coastal areas within minutes and affecting the entire basin within 1-1.5 hours,thus leaving limited tsunami warning time.This study highlights the potential tsunami hazard in the Sulu Sea and reveals the critical impact of the complexity and uncertainty of fault slip.The findings provide new insights for tsunami hazard assessment and early tsunami warning,which can help improve the accuracy of tsunami prediction and evacuation planning.
作者
崔家莹
李琳琳
杜朋
李志刚
王伟涛
CUI Jiaying;LI Linlin;DU Peng;LI Zhigang;WANG Weitao(Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Geodynamics and Geological Disasters/School of Earth Sciences and Engineering,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai 519082,Guangdong,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519082,Guangdong,China)
出处
《大地构造与成矿学》
北大核心
2025年第5期1132-1149,共18页
Geotectonica et Metallogenia
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3008600)
广东省“珠江人才计划”引进创新创业团队项目(2021ZT09H399)
南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海)创新团队项目(311023002)联合资助。
关键词
苏禄海
非均匀滑移断层
断层分段性
地震海啸模拟
海啸灾害评估
Sulu Sea
non-uniform slip fault
fault segmentation
seismic tsunami simulation
tsunami hazard assessment
