摘要
针对海洋石油工程项目风险评估中存在的系统性不足和主观性强,导致评估结果与实际不相符的问题,开展基于模糊层次分析法的海洋石油工程项目风险评估模型及应用研究。通过构建包含技术、管理、环境和应急能力的四级指标体系,结合区间数判断矩阵计算指标权重,并采用模糊综合评估方法实现风险等级量化。通过对比实验证明,新的评估方法能够更全面地考虑各类风险因素,在评估准确性和解释性方面具有显著优势,尤其适用于复杂海洋环境下的石油工程项目风险评估。
In view of the systematic deficiency and subjectivity in the risk assessment of offshore oil engineering projects,which leads to the inconsistency between the assessment results and the actual situation,the risk assess⁃ment model and application research of offshore oil engineering projects based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process are carried out.By constructing a four-level index system including technology,management,environment and emer⁃gency response capability,the index weight is calculated by combining the interval number judgment matrix,and the risk level is quantified by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Through comparative experiments,it is proved that the new evaluation method can consider all kinds of risk factors more comprehensively,and has sig⁃nificant advantages in evaluation accuracy and interpretability,especially for risk assessment of petroleum engineer⁃ing projects in complex marine environment.
作者
崔若相
CUI Ruoxiang(Offshore Oil Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin 300450,China)
出处
《粘接》
2025年第10期125-128,共4页
Adhesion
关键词
模糊层次分析法
工程项目
评估
风险
海洋石油
fuzzy analytic hierarchy process
engineering projects
assessment
risk
marine oil
