摘要
本文利用Li等(2022)给出的区域高精度波浪降尺度再分析结果,分析渤海、黄海和东海海域逐3 h波浪特征资料,将基准期(1979—2005年)的波浪模拟结果与RCP2.6情景下2021—2050年的波浪进行对比分析。结果表明,RCP2.6情景下波浪特征大部分研究海域年均波高为减少趋势,自渤海西北部向黄海中东部减小趋势逐渐增加,以黄海中东部海域年均波高减小幅度最大,东海东部为增长;对于年均周期而言,东海大部分海域处于增长趋势,中东部减小幅度可达到0.02 s以上,渤海及黄海大部分海域为减小趋势。研究结果可为东中国海海域提供较好的气候变化预估资料,同时对评估气候变化的影响和提出适应性的措施提供科学依据。
The high-resolution COSMO model in climate mode(CCLM)was used to simulate the 3-hour wave characteristics in the Bohai Sea,the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea.The simulation results for the base period(from 1979 to 2005)were compared with the wave characteristics changes from 2021 to 2050 under the RCP2.6 scenario.The results showed that the average annual wave height increased from the northwest Bohai Sea to the middle and east Yellow Sea.The average annual wave height increased the most in the middle and east Yellow Sea,and decreased in the east China Sea.In terms of the average annual cycle,most of the sea areas in the East China Sea were in a decreasing trend,and the decrease in the central and eastern parts could reach more than 0.02 s,while most of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea were in an increasing trend.The results could provide better climate change prediction data for the east China seas,and provided scientific basis for assessing the impact of future climate change and putting forward adaptive measures.
作者
钱茹茹
杨丽中
杜文彦
李德磊
石洪源
QIAN Ruru;YANG Lizhong;DU Wenyan;LI Delei;SHI Hongyuan(Ningbo Natural Resources Ecological Restoration and Marine Management Service Center,Ningbo 315042,China;School of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering,Ludong University Yantai 264000,China;The Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences Yantai 264034,China)
出处
《海洋湖沼通报(中英文)》
北大核心
2025年第4期26-34,共9页
Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology
基金
烟台市科技创新发展计划(2023JCYJ097)
国家自然科学基金(51909114)
NSFC-山东联合重点基金(U1806227)。
