摘要
自然灾害链的复杂性和跨域扩散特征对城市应急管理提出严峻挑战。为揭示灾害链传导机理并实现其智能生成,该文结合现有灾害分析理论,构建适用于灾害链分析的理论模型,通过改进Apriori算法,引入显性存储机制表达灾害演化时序关系,改善了传统关联规则挖掘中因果倒置问题,并结合本体映射技术实现跨城市群灾害链知识的语义对齐与动态补充,形成“数据驱动-规则挖掘-知识融合”的灾害链智能生成框架。基于长江中游城市群的验证表明,模型能识别区域特异性传导路径,揭示承灾体状态演变对灾害链扩展的核心驱动作用。以期为灾害风险精准防控、城市精细化治理提供了相关政策建议和解决方案。
The complexity and cross domain diffusion characteristics of natural disaster chains pose severe challenges to urban emergency management.To reveal the transmission mechanism of disaster chains and achieve intelligent generation,existing disaster analysis theories are combined to construct a theoretical model suitable for disaster chain analysis.By improving the Apriori algorithm and introducing an explicit storage mechanism to express the temporal relationship of disaster evolution,the problem of causal inversion in traditional association rule mining is solved.In addition,ontology mapping technology is used to achieve semantic alignment and dynamic supplementation of disaster chain knowledge across urban agglomerations,forming a"data-drivenrule mining-knowledge fusion"intelligent generation framework for disaster chains.The validation based on the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River shows that the model can identify regional specific transmission pathways and reveal the core driving role of the evolution of disaster bearing body status on the expansion of the disaster chain.The research results have summarized the chain propagation law of disaster occurrence from the perspective of disaster chain association rules,providing new ideas for urban disaster chain management,and providing relevant policy recommendations and solutions for precise disaster risk prevention and control and urban fine governance.
作者
赵甜甜
郭海湘
吴祈
吴阳
刘博
ZHAO Tiantian;GUO Haixiang;WU Qi;WU Yang;LIU Bo(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430078,China;The Laboratory of Natural Disaster Risk Prevention and Emergency Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;School of Public Administration,Xiangtan University,Xiangtan 411105,China;School of Management,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430081,China)
出处
《灾害学》
北大核心
2025年第4期150-156,共7页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家社科基金重点项目“新时代公共安全应急框架体系研究”(23AZD072)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“山区复合链生灾害风险评估与应急处置研究”(42571359)
湖北省自然科学基金创新群体项目“复合链生灾害致灾机制与综合风险防控体系研究”(2024AFA015)
湖北省自然科学基金创新发展联合基金培育项目“长江流域极端降水事件识别关键技术及重大灾害事件库构建研究”(2024AFD216)
湖北省高等学校哲学社会科学研究重大项目“面向重大突发事件的社会力量动员与调度优化研究”(22ZD012)。
