摘要
该文收集整理我国2000—2023年266起自然灾害引发的次生突发环境污染事件(Secondary Pollution Incidents by Natural Disasters,SPI-ND),采用时空格局分析、空间重心转移曲线及系统分析方法,揭示其时空分布、风险特征及致灾机理。结果表明:SPI-ND总体呈现波动变化,历经平稳期、波动期、增长期和下降期,夏季高发;空间分布差异显著,71%事故集中于西南、南部沿海、长江中游及黄河中游地区,粤川陕鄂湘为高发省份且空间集聚;事故频发区呈现向西、向南扩散迁移,重心转移方向至西南、西北。诱因以气象水文、地震为主,高风险行业集中于化工、采矿与运输,工业事故以污染物泄漏和设施坍塌为主,危险化学品和油类为主要污染物,水污染主导且复合污染危害突出;致灾机理呈“灾害驱动-系统失效-污染扩散-受体受损”链式过程。
A systematic compilation and analysis are conducted on 266 natural-disaster-induced secondary pollution incidents(SPI-ND)in China from 2000 to 2023 in this study.Spatiotemporal pattern analysis,gravity center shift modeling,and a systems-based analytical framework are employed to elucidate the distribution patterns,risk characteristics,and underlying causative mechanisms of these incidents.Key findings reveal that the occurrence of SPI-ND is characterized by a fluctuating trend with four distinct phases:stability,fluctuation,growth,and decline.Seasonal peaking in summer is observed.Spatially,71%of cases are concentrated in the southwest,southern coastal areas,and the middle reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers.High-incidence provinces such as Guangdong,Sichuan,Shaanxi,Hubei,and Hunan are identified,with significant spatial clustering demonstrated.A discernible east-to-west and north-to-south migration trend is exhibited in the geographic distribution,with the gravity center predominantly shifted toward the southwest and northwest.Meteorologicalhydrological and geological-seismic hazards are identified as the primary triggers.High-risk industries are found to include the chemical,mining,and transportation sectors.Industrial incidents are predominantly characterized by pollutant leakage or structural collapse,with hazardous chemicals and petroleum products being the major contaminants.Water pollution is the most prevalent type,and the compound nature of pollution is observed to exacerbate environmental risks.The disaster process is found to adhere to a typical chain mechanism:"disaster trigger-system failure-pollutant dispersion-receptor damage".
作者
张旭
杨洁
邵智娟
沈春其
张涛涛
张煜唯
许敏
张宸
李昀晓
ZHANG Xu;YANG Jie;SHAO Zhijuan;SHEN Chunqi;ZHANG Taotao;ZHANG Yuwei;XU Min;ZHANG Chen;LI Yunxiao(School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Suzhou University of Science and Technology,Suzhou 215009,China)
出处
《灾害学》
北大核心
2025年第4期105-113,共9页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“城市路面沉积物输移的雨-流动力驱动机理与过程模拟研究”(52309102)
国家自然科学基金项目“浅水湖泊沉水植物对碳循环的影响机理研究”(42377051)。
关键词
自然灾害
次生突发环境事件
时空分布
风险特征谱
致灾机理
natural disaster
secondary pollution incidents
spatiotemporal distribution
risk characteristic map
disaster-causing mechanism
