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气候变化级联效应视角下韧性城市研究进程及展望

Research Progress and Prospects of Resilient Cities from the Perspective of Climate Change Cascade Effects
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摘要 该文运用CiteSpace软件对该领域文献进行计量分析。研究发现:①当前级联效应的研究多聚集于单一灾害对城市子系统的影响;②“气候变化”在韧性城市研究中具有核心作用,研究主题由基础理论研究向应用研究转变;③国内外研究主要聚焦于理论与实践框架探索、指标体系构建及量化评估方法创新、复合灾种情境预防及提升策略等方面。基于此从研究方向、理论框架、评估方法、实践转化及模拟优化五个方面提出未来国内外韧性城市建设的研究建议及展望:①明确级联风险治理导向;②构建全过程、全链条的韧性城市理论框架;③创新多灾种级联复合情境下的韧性评估方法;④推动研究成果的实践转化;⑤实现多灾种级联情境下多系统韧性模拟及优化。 By using CiteSpace software,a bibliometric analysis of the literature in the relevant fields is conducted.The study finds that:①The current research on cascading effects mainly focuses on the impact of a single disaster on urban subsystems;②The keyword"climate change"plays a significant core role in the research on resilient cities,and the research theme has gradually shifted from the construction of basic theories to practical application research;③Domestic and international research on resilient cities mainly focuses on the exploration of theoretical and practical frameworks,the construction of indicator systems and innovation in quantitative assessment methods,and the prevention and improvement strategies for compound disaster scenarios.In summary,we propose research suggestions and prospects for the construction and development trends of resilient cities from five aspects:research direction,theoretical framework,assessment methods,practical transformation,and simulation optimization.These include:First,clarifying the orientation of cascading risk governance of climate change;Second,constructing a full-process and full-chain theoretical framework for resilient cities;Third,innovating the resilience assessment methods for multi-disaster cascading compound scenarios;Fourth,promoting the practical transformation of research results;Fifth,achieving multi-system resilience simulation and optimization under multi-disaster cascading scenarios.
作者 赵亮 张椿苗 宋健 林浩曦 ZHAO Liang;ZHANG Chunmiao;SONG Jian;LIN Haoxi(School of Urban Economics and Management,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 102616,China;School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Archi-tecture,Beijing 100044,China)
出处 《灾害学》 北大核心 2025年第4期97-104,共8页 Journal of Catastrophology
基金 北京市社会科学基金项目“突发公共卫生事件下超大城市复合灾害风险评估与韧性规划响应研究”(22GLC071)。
关键词 气候变化 级联效应 韧性城市 知识图谱 文献计量 climate change cascade effects resilient cities knowledge map bibliometrics
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