摘要
围绕海上编队油料消耗预测问题,提出了一种基于仿真推演大数据的算法模型。通过分析海上油料消耗相关内容,从作战样式、作战任务、敌我能力和战场环境4方面提炼了9个影响因素,并通过灰色关联分析和多元线性回归分析结合的方法,计算各影响因素和油料消耗量的灰色关联度,挑选影响最大的4个因素后采取多元线性回归分析建立预测模型。实例验证表明,本文构建的模型预测值与实际值偏差较小,证明了该模型能够较好地预测海上编队油料消耗情况。
This paper presents an algorithmic model based on simulation for predicting oil consumption of marine formation teams.Based on the analysis of relevant contents of offshore oil consumption,nine influencing factors were extracted from combat pattern,combat mission,enemy-ego capability and battlefield environment.The grey correlation degree of each influencing factor and oil consumption was calculated by combining grey correlation analysis and multivariate linear regression analysis.Multivariate linear regression analysis was adopted to establish the prediction model after selecting the four factors with the greatest influence.Example verification shows that the model constructed in this paper has little deviation from the actual value,which proves that the model can better predict the oil consumption of offshore formation team,and it has certain practical value in marine formation oil guarantee.
作者
张靖昊
曹毅
马建良
ZHANG Jinghao;CAO Yi;MA Jianliang(Chinese People's Liberation Army National Defense University Joint Combat College,Beijing 100091,China)
出处
《指挥控制与仿真》
2025年第5期144-149,共6页
Command Control & Simulation
关键词
海上编队
油料
消耗预测
灰色系统理论
多元线性回归分析
maritime formation
oil
forecast of consumption
grey system theory
multivariate linear regression analysis
