摘要
随着2014年南水北调中线工程向北京输水,密云水库担负起关键战略性储备水库重任,2021年后更是要求密云水库高水位运行,其水资源调配作用显得尤为重要。采用线性回归、Mann-Kendall趋势检验及特征分析方法,对密云水库1960—2022年的入库径流量进行了详细分析。通过Mann-Kendall突变检验和有序聚类法初步确认了入库径流序列中的水文变异点,并利用秩和检验法进一步验证了这些变异点的显著性。研究结果显示,密云水库入库径流总体呈现减少趋势,特别是在20世纪初以来这一趋势更加显著;1979、1998年是明显的水文变异年份。
Since the commencement of water transfer to Beijing via the South-to-North Water Diversion Project′s central route in 2014,the Miyun Reservoir has assumed the critical role of a strategic reserve reservoir.After 2021,the reservoir is required to operate at high water levels,making its role in water resource allocation increasingly vital.In this study,a detailed analysis was conducted on the inflow runoff of Miyun Reservoir from 1960 to 2022 using linear regression,Mann-Kendall trend tests,and characteristic analysis methods.The Mann-Kendall mutation test and ordered clustering method were employed to preliminarily identify hydrological change points in the inflow runoff series,and the Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used to further verify the significance of these change points.The results indicated that the inflow runoff to the Miyun Reservoir has generally shown a decreasing trend,which had become more pronounced since the early 2000s.The years 1979 and 1998 were identified as significant hydrological mutation points.
作者
杨文娇
张岑
刘腾飞
张冠宇
YANG Wenjiao;ZHANG Cen;LIU Tengfei;ZHANG Guanyu(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Beijing Institute of Water Science and Technology,Beijing 100048,China;Beijing Miyun Reservoir Management Office,Beijing 101512,China)
出处
《海河水利》
2025年第9期48-51,共4页
Haihe Water Resources
基金
北京市科技计划项目(Z231100003823005)“暴雨洪涝灾害智能感知及多源数据驱动风险预警技术研究与应用”。
关键词
密云水库
径流量
趋势分析
突变分析
Miyun Reservoir
runoff volume
trend analysis
abrupt change analysis
