摘要
以东北地区为研究对象,分析多年冻土退化程度及空间分布。通过收集关键气象要素,使用多元线性回归模型修正部分地面温度,基于多年冻土顶部温度(temperature at the top of permafrost,TTOP)模型,利用ANUSPILN软件进行插值,分析东北多年冻土时空分布变化。结果表明,1970 s、1980 s、1990 s、2000 s、2010 s的多年冻土面积分别约为3.99×10^(5)、3.41×10^(5)、2.31×10^(5)、1.80×10^(5)、1.59×10^(5) km^(2)。1970 s—2010 s,东北地区的多年冻土面积显著减少约2.40×10^(5) km^(2),降幅高达60.08%。多年冻土面积占东北地区总面积的比例从27.66%下降至11.04%,而季节性冻土面积比例则从72.34%增加至88.96%。模型结果与实际钻孔数据差值仅为0.05℃,且使用修正地面温度数据的模型结果高于现有研究结果。
Taking the Northeast China as the research object,this paper investigated the degradation degree and spatial distribution of permafrost over the years.Key meteorological elements were collected,and a multiple linear regression model was used to calibrate the ground surface temperature data.Based on the temperature at the top of permafrost(TTOP)model,and using ANUSPILN software for interpolation,the spatial and temporal distribution of permafrost in Northeast China was analyzed.The results showed that the areas of permafrost in the 1970 s,1980 s,1990 s,2000 s,2010 s were about 3.99×10^(5),3.41×10^(5),2.31×10^(5),1.80×10^(5),1.59×10^(5) km^(2),respectively.During the period of 1970 s to 2010 s,the permafrost area in Northeast China decreased significantly by about 2.40×10^(5) km^(2),with a de⁃crease of 60.08%.The proportion of permafrost area in Northeast China decreased from 27.66%to 11.04%,while the proportion of seasonally permafrost area increased from 72.34%to 88.96%.The difference between the model results and the actual borehole data was only 0.05℃,and the model results using the corrected ground temperature data were higher than the existing research results.
作者
王薪迪
李秀娟
王文杰
王政博
丁琳
宋杨
柳艳杰
WANG Xindi;LI Xiujuan;WANG Wenjie;WANG Zhengbo;DING Lin;SONG Yang;LIU Yanjie(School of Civil Engineering,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080,China;College of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518060,China)
出处
《森林工程》
北大核心
2025年第5期990-999,共10页
Forest Engineering
基金
黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(LH2023D022)
冰冻圈科学与冻土工程重点实验室开放课题(CSFSE-KF-2429)
山区桥梁及隧道工程国家重点实验室项目(SKLBT-ZD2302)。
关键词
东北
多年冻土分布
冻土退化
多年冻土顶部温度模型
多元线性回归
地表温度
数字高程
钻孔数据
Northeast
permafrost distribution
frozen soil degradation
temperature at the top of permafrost model
multiple linear regression
surface temperature
digital elevation model
borehole data
