摘要
目的回顾性分析长沙地区献血者乙型肝炎表面抗原(HBsAg)阳性率的变化趋势及其影响因素,并基于月度数据构建自回归求和移动平均模型(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model,ARIMA)进行预测。方法选取2020—2023年长沙地区629721名献血者为研究对象,统计HBsAg阳性献血者的人口学特征。采用χ^(2)检验和二元logistic回归分析其影响因素,利用Eviews 12.0软件构建ARIMA模型,对2024年1—3月HBsAg阳性率进行预测和评价。结果2020—2023年长沙地区献血者HBsAg阳性率为4.6‰(2874/629721),呈先升后降趋势。献血年份在2023年(OR=0.578)、出生年份在2002年及以后(OR=0.654)、年龄18~<30岁(OR=0.529)、少数民族(OR=0.734)、本科及以上文化程度(OR=0.821)、重复献血(OR=0.188)、单采血小板(OR=0.787)以及个人献血(OR=0.883)的献血者HBsAg阳性率低(均P<0.05)。ARIMA(2,1,0)预测模型通过检验,对2024年1—3月HBsAg阳性率的预测结果显示,MAPE为12.79%,预测效果一般。结论2020—2023年长沙地区无偿献血者HBsAg阳性率整体较低。年轻群体、少数民族、重复献血者、本科及以上文化程度、单采血小板的个人献血者HBsAg阳性风险相对更低。采供血机构应重点加强该人群的招募与宣传,扩大重复献血者队伍,降低HBsAg阳性率,进一步保障血液安全。ARIMA(2,1,0)模型预测效果一般,未来研究应将更多相关变量纳入模型,以探索更精准的预测模型。
Objective To retrospectively analyze the trend and influencing factors of hepatitis B surface antigen(HBsAg)positivity rate among blood donors in Changsha from 2020 to 2023,and to construct an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model based on monthly data for prediction.Methods A total of 629721 blood donors in Changsha from 2020 to 2023 were included.Demographic characteristics of HBsAg-positive donors were analyzed using χ^(2) tests and binary logistic regression.An ARIMA model was developed with EViews 12.0 to predict HBsAg positivity rates from January to March 2024,and its performance was evaluated.Results The overall HBsAg positivity rate among blood donors was 4.6 per 1000(2874/629721),showing an initial increase followed by a decrease.Lower HBsAg positivity rates were associated with donation year 2023(OR=0.578),birth year≥2002(OR=0.654),age 18-30 years(OR=0.529),nonHan ethnicity(OR=0.734),education level of bachelor's degree or higher(OR=0.821),repeat donations(OR=0.188),apher⁃esis platelet donations(OR=0.787),and voluntary individual donations(OR=0.883)(all P<0.05).The ARIMA(2,1,0)model passed validation tests,with a mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of 12.79%for predictions from January to March 2024,indicating moderate predictive accuracy.Conclusions The HBsAg positivity rate among voluntary blood donors in Changsha remained low from 2020 to 2023.Younger donors,non-Han ethnic groups,repeat donors,individuals with higher education levels,and apheresis platelet donors exhibited lower HBsAg positivity risks.Blood collection agencies should pri⁃oritize recruiting and retaining these populations to further reduce HBsAg positivity and enhance blood safety.The ARIMA(2,1,0)model demonstrated moderate predictive performance;future studies should incorporate additional variables to de⁃velop more precise prediction models.
作者
李尚武
袁媛
陈静
谭明华
罗佳
LI Shangwu;YUAN Yuan;CHEN Jing;TAN Minghua;LUO Jia(Changsha Blood Center,Changsha,Hunan 410000,China;School of Public Health,Hunan Normal University)
出处
《华南预防医学》
2025年第7期741-747,共7页
South China Journal of Preventive Medicine
基金
中国输血协会圣湘输血医学发展基金(CSBT-SX-2024-03)。
