摘要
面对地方政府土地使用权转让收入持续下滑和政府债务风险攀升的现实挑战,因地制宜盘活政府资产中的财力性资源以优化财力结构,既是破题关键,也是落实党的二十届三中全会提出的“加强财政资源和预算统筹”的应有之义。基于此,本文构建了一个财力性资源和地方政府债务风险关系的理论模型,并提供了中国地方政府统筹财力性资源以提升财政可持续性的经验证据。研究发现,资源价值的增加在一定程度上加大了地方政府债务融资的动机,进而提升隐性债务余额,放大债务风险。此外,面临偿债压力的地方政府将基于自身资源禀赋调整资源利用结构。以矿产资源为例,随着剩余征地空间日趋减少,高矿产资源丰裕地区的地方政府隐性债务余额增加,将显著提升该地区矿产资源开采率。基于此,本文提出应合理统筹财力性资源,约束地方政府利用资源禀赋优势过度举债;同时,推进市场化资源权益交易,扩展政府资源性收入补充财力途径,并在严守生态红线的基础上,规范政府获取资源性收入的行为,为实现跨期财力再平衡提供多重保障。
To explore the intensifying contradiction between local governments’fiscal revenues and expenditures,rising debt risks,and the unsustainability of land finance,this study constructs a theoretical model examining the relationship between financial resources and local government debt risk.Using panel data from 29 provincial regions in China from 2006 to 2017,the study empirically investigates the impact of mineral resource reserves and value on local government debt levels,and tests the relationship between local government debt balance and the mineral resource exploitation rate.The findings indicate that an increase in resource value enhances local governments’motivation for debt financing,thereby raising hidden debt balances and amplifying the debt risk.In addition,local governments facing debt repayment pressure adjust their resource utilization structure based on their resource endowments.For instance,with diminishing land acquisition opportunities,local governments with a higher hidden debt balance in areas rich in mineral resources significantly increase the exploitation rate of these resources.This study suggests that financial resources should be reasonably coordinated to restrain excessive borrowing by local governments exploiting their resource endowments.It also advocates promoting market-oriented transactions of resource rights and interests,expanding ways for government resource revenue to supplement financial resources,and regulating government behavior in obtaining resource income while strictly abiding by the ecological red line,so as to provide multiple guarantees for achieving long-term financial rebalancing.The possible marginal contributions of this paper are as follows.First,it expands the research perspective on changes in local government debt levels to include mineral resource assets,enriching the study of the relationship between financial resources and government debt.Second,it constructs a theoretical model linking financial resources and government debt,and conducts an empirical analysis to mitigate the endogeneity issue between debt income and resource income.Third,by studying the relationship between financial resources and government debt risks,the study provides policy insights for optimizing the financial structure of local governments,improving fiscal sustainability,and advancing Chinese modernization based on the harmonious coexistence between humanity and nature in the next stage.Future research can continue to monitor the results of China’s market-oriented reform of factors and the development of a market-oriented system for resource and environmental factors.The study’s conclusions can be expanded in two ways:by verifying and extending the findings using a larger sample size,and by differentiating the financial transformation path of renewable resources,such as forests and grasslands,and the relationship with debt.
作者
孙琳
钟睿
SUN Lin;ZHONG Rui(Fudan University,200433;Beijing Municipal Finance Bureau,101160)
出处
《财贸经济》
北大核心
2025年第9期38-55,共18页
Finance & Trade Economics
基金
习近平经济思想研究中心研究项目资助,复旦大学理论经济学高峰计划项目“财政可持续目标下的刚性财政支出研究:识别、归因与优化”。
关键词
地方政府债务
土地财政
矿产资源
资源性收入
Local Government Debt
Land Finance
Mineral Resources
Resource Revenue
