摘要
选取1993—2018年中国31个省份的面板数据,采用核密度估计与莫兰指数分析森林碳汇的时空演化与集聚特征,构建空间杜宾模型(SDM),系统评估人工造林面积、林业总产值、耕地面积、第二产业指数与财政支出等变量对碳汇的直接与空间溢出效应。研究发现:中国森林碳汇总量持续增长,区域差异显著,具有正向空间自相关性;造林、财政支出与林业产值对碳汇具有正效应,耕地面积和第二产业指数则呈负效应,部分变量具有空间联动性。研究表明,经济因素通过本地与跨区域路径共同影响碳汇分布。据此,提出了因地制宜优化造林与土地政策,推动财政与产业向绿色导向转型,并完善跨区域生态补偿机制的建议。
⑴Background——Forest carbon sinks are regarded as the key ecological indicators for achieving China’s“dual carbon”goals and promoting sustainable forest development.Given the significant heterogeneity in forest carbon sinks capacity among various provinces,spatial heterogeneity and economic driving mechanisms are crucial for the development of regional comprehensive carbon governance.Although academic attention to the evolution of forest carbon sinks is increasing,few studies have utilized spatial econometric models to explore the spatial spillover effects of economic factors on forest carbon sinks.⑵Methods——This paper used the Forest Stock Volume Expansion method to estimate the forest carbon stocks of 31 provinces(municipalities,autonomous regions)in China during the six national forest inventories from 1993 to 2018.The spatiotemporal dynamics and agglomeration characteristics of forest carbon sinks were analyzed by using the Global Moran’s I and Kernel Density Estimation.Furthermore,the Spatial Durbin Model was applied to examine the economic driving factors of the spatial spillover effects on regional carbon sinks.The research data was mainly sourced from the IPCC reports,the China Statistical Yearbooks,and the annual statistical yearbooks of various provinces.⑶Results——First,the total forest carbon sinks in China has been continuously and significantly increasing from 1993 to 2018,but there are obvious differences in carbon sinks growth among regions.Second,the spatial autocorrelation analysis reveals significant spatial agglomeration effects in China’s forest carbon sinks,with high-high clusters predominantly concentrated in Southwest China and the Yangtze River Basin.Third,the estimation of the Spatial Durbin Model indicates that he artificial afforestation area has a significant direct and indirect positive effects on forest carbon sinks.In contrast,the cultivated land area,the secondary industry index,and government fiscal expenditure show varying degrees of negative spatial spillover effects,especially with the cultivated land area showing a significant negative impact on the regional forest carbon sinks capacity.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——Based on the above research conclusions,the following policy suggestions are proposed:First,adopt differentiated carbon sinks growth paths based on the varying resource endowments of different regions and integrate these paths with the“dual carbon”strategy.Continuously increase ecological compensation and fiscal transfer payments to the key ecological functional areas in the western regions,optimize the land use structures in the central and eastern regions,and accelerate the establishment of a multi-regional linked carbon sinks trading market.Second,construct differentiated carbon sinks assessment standards and ecological performance evaluation systems,improve spatial layout and hierarchical and classified management mechanisms,and enhance the precision and flexibility of carbon sinks governance.Third,establish cross-regional spatial coordination mechanisms,improve cross-regional ecological compensation mechanisms,strengthen the horizontal linkage of fiscal and ecological resources among regions,and promote the sharing of experience and resources in areas such as artificial afforestation areas,carbon sinks accounting and forestry projects.
作者
陈铮
陈步云
吴松泽
陈楠
林彦博
陈潜
CHEN Zheng;CHEN Buyun;WU Songze;CHEN Nan;LIN Yanbo;CHEN Qian(Faculty of Science,University of Malaya,Kuala Lumpur 50603,Malaysia;College of Marxism,Fujian Agriculture And Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China;College of Public Administration and Law,Fujian Agriculture And Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China;College of Business and Economics,Australian National University,Canberra 2612,Australia)
出处
《林业经济问题》
北大核心
2025年第5期471-479,共9页
Issues of Forestry Economics
基金
福建省社会科学基金重大项目(FJ2022JDZ034)
福建农林大学习近平生态文明思想研究院开放课题立项(STWMSX23-06)。
关键词
森林碳汇
空间异质性
空间杜宾模型
空间溢出效应
经济驱动因素
forest carbon sinks
spatial heterogeneity
Spatial Durbin Model
spatial spillover effects
economic driving factors
