摘要
技术多样化对规避风险、增强城市技术网络韧性具有重要作用。基于演化经济地理、网络韧性理论,从企业、产业、城市3个层面分析技术多样化与城市技术网络韧性关系,并将城市技术多样化进行分解,深度探索技术多样化的影响机制。结果表明:①技术多样化对两种扰动情境下城市技术网络韧性的影响呈现先弱后强的U型作用特征并具有城市异质性;②技术多样化的分解效应表明,技术相关多样化、技术无关多样化对两种扰动情境下的城市技术网络韧性均呈现非线性作用;③产业规模对技术多样化与两种扰动情境下城市技术网络韧性的U型关系发挥正向促进作用。
As global connections between industries and technologies deepen,the growth and spillover effects of industrial agglomeration have become pivotal drivers of technological progress.External risks and internal technological lock-in threaten the secure development of urban technology networks.Cities establish resilient technology networks to make quick responses,absorb disruptions,and recover swiftly when encountering risks,thereby ensuring the secure development of urban science and technology.The resilience of urban technology networks is inseparable from technological diversity.Diversity,acting as a"shock absorber",enables swift recovery from shocks and plays a pivotal role in fostering resilience.From the perspective of micro-enterprises,during their developmental stages,conducting R&D activities introduces uncertainty in innovation and blind expansion,rendering urban technology networks relatively fragile.However,as enterprises mature and technological diversification improves,the resilience of urban technological networks has strengthened.From a meso-industrial perspective,during the initial stages of industrial development,urban technological networks experience a mix of opportunities and challenges,leading to relative turbulence.With the development of diversified technology and continuous industrial scale expansion,industrial upgrading has given rise to new growth paths,enhancing the resilience of urban technology networks to withstand risks.From a macro urban perspective,during the initial stages of urban development,rising innovation uncertainty results in heightened risks and greater vulnerability of urban technological networks.As cities continue to evolve,technological agglomeration fosters greater technological diversification,while efficiency advantages and spillover effects mitigate the impact of risks on the network.It is thus necessary to delve into the relationship between technological diversification and urban technological network resilience.Using the panel data of 48 cities in China's three major urban agglomerations from 2006 to 2021,this study employs a fixed effect model to investigate the nonlinear relationship between technological diversification and the resilience of urban technological networks under random and intentional disturbance scenarios.It further examines the moderating effect of industry scale.Additionally,this study decomposes diversification into related variety and unrelated variety,conducting an analysis of how diversification influences the resilience of urban technological networks.It is found that,firstly,technological diversification significantly influences the resilience of urban technology networks under various disturbance scenarios,exhibiting a U-shaped relationship.Additionally,urban heterogeneity plays a role in this context.Secondly,industry scale enhances the U-shaped relationship between technological diversification and the resilience of urban technology networks across disturbance scenarios.Thirdly,the analysis of the decomposition effect reveals that related variety exhibits a U-shaped relationship with urban technology network resilience,whereas unrelated variety shows an inverted U-shaped relationship across disturbance scenarios.This paper argues that enhancing the resilience of urban technology networks should focus on two key aspects.First,diversified technology strategies should be developed to stimulate innovation development and foster new technologies and industries.On the one hand,fostering new growth pathways via related variety is essential for overcoming lock-in effects and fostering the resilient development of urban technology networks.On the other hand,pursuing unrelated variety can reduce technology entry costs and thresholds,thus mitigating risks and ensuring stable development of urban technology networks.Second,the government should optimize regional industrial layouts to leverage comparative advantages,strengthen upstream,midstream,and downstream industrial chains,and foster resilient urban technology network development through technological advancements.Meanwhile,expanding industry scale through structural adjustments can accelerate technological factor circulation,foster technological diversification,and enhance the resilience of urban technology networks to resist risks.The contributions of this study are twofold.First,in terms of research content,it delves into the diversification within evolutionary economic geography,and it dissects diversification further,by examining how related and unrelated varieties impact urban technological network resilience across various disturbance scenarios.Overall,this study advances the understanding of diversification in evolutionary economic geography.Second,regarding the research methods,this paper employs complex network theory and resilience theory to categorize the disturbances and risks faced by urban technology networks.It proceeds by simulating two disturbance scenarios—random and intentional,and assesses urban technology network resilience through these simulations,which enhances the measurement techniques for assessing the resilience of urban technology networks and provides a basis for investigating how urban technology diversification impacts the resilience of these networks.
作者
杨洋
王丽丽
李洪涛
张弘驰
Yang Yang;Wang Lili;Li Hongtao;Zhang Hongchi(School of Public Administration and Policy,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;School of Politics and Public Administration,Guangxi Minzu University,Nanning 530006,China;School of Architecture and Fine Art,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China)
出处
《科技进步与对策》
北大核心
2025年第16期49-59,共11页
Science & Technology Progress and Policy
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52108044)。
关键词
城市技术网络韧性
技术多样化
相关多样化
无关多样化
产业规模
Resilience of Urban Technological Networks
Technological Diversification
Technological Related Diversification
Unrelated Diversification
Industrial Scale
