摘要
降水量的变化是水库蓄水和调度的重要参考因素。基于台风路径资料、集雨区观测点的逐日降水观测资料以及Micaps数据,利用统计学方法研究影响鹤地水库集雨区的台风降水变化特征及台风暴雨环流形势场配置。结果表明:近32 a来影响集雨区的台风增加趋势为0.33个/(10 a),存在7 a的周期振荡,7—9月份是台风影响高峰期;不同路径型台风的降水特征存在较大差异,西路型台风降水过程雨量、雨强差异较大,集雨区南部降水比北部地区强,且局地性暴雨居多;中路型台风降水过程雨量大、强降水范围大、维持时间相对较长,集雨区全区以暴雨到大暴雨为主;东路型降水各站点雨量差异很大;此外,造成鹤地水库上游集雨区台风暴雨的环流主要由副热带高压、西南季风、冷空气共同影响引起,初步建立西路型、中路型台风暴雨的环流形势场经验预报方法。
[Objective]Variations in precipitation are important references for reservoir storage and scheduling.This study aims to reveal the precipitation patterns in the catchment area of the Hedi Reservoir under typhoons with different track types(west-track,middle-track,east-track),establish related forecasting experience,and improve typhoon precipitation forecast services.[Methods]Using typhoon track data,daily precipitation observations from monitoring stations in the catchment area,and MICAPS data,statistical methods including linear trend analysis and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to investigate the variation characteristics of typhoon precipitation and the circulation pattern configurations of typhoon-induced rainstorms affecting the catchment area of Hedi Reservoir.[Results]The results showed that:(1)over the past 32 years,the number of typhoons affecting the catchment area showed an increasing trend of 0.33 events per decade,with a 7-year periodic oscillation.The peak typhoon season occurred from July to September,accounting for 77.2%of annual typhoon impact.(2)Typhoon tracks affecting the catchment area were classified into three types:west-track,middle-track,and east-track.Middle-track type was the most frequent,accounting for 46.8%of the total,followed by west-track type at 44.3%,while east-track type was the least frequent,accounting for 8.9%.(3)There were significant differences in precipitation characteristics among typhoons with different track types.West-track typhoons showed large variations in precipitation amount and intensity,with stronger precipitation in the southern catchment area and frequent localized rainstorms.Middle-track typhoons were characterized by large rainfall amounts,extensive areas of intense precipitation,and relatively prolonged duration,with rainstorms to heavy rainstorms dominating the entire catchment area.For east-track typhoons,rainfall amounts varied greatly across stations,and there was currently no reliable forecasting experience.(4)The typhoon-induced rainstorms in the upstream catchment area of Hedi Reservoir were mainly caused by the combined influence of the western Pacific subtropical high,the southwest monsoon,and cold air.Based on an analysis of historical typhoon circulation patterns,an empirical forecasting method for the circulation patterns of west-track and middle-track typhoon-induced rainstorms was preliminarily developed.[Conclusion]The results of this study indicate that the precipitation in the catchment area of the Hedi Reservoir is closely related to typhoon tracks.Forecasting of typhoon tracks and empirical prediction of their circulation patterns can serve as a reference for accurately forecasting reservoir precipitation.These findings provide important guidance for the rational operation of the Hedi Reservoir,coordinated water storage scheduling,meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation,and the full realization of maximum comprehensive benefits.
作者
符靖茹
徐金勤
蔡孙平
谭孟祥
于洲
林卉娇
FU Jing-ru;XU Jin-qin;CAI Sun-ping;TAN Meng-xiang;YU Zhou;LIN Hui-jiao(Guangdong Zhanjiang Meteorological Bureau,Zhanjiang 524001,China;Guangdong Meteorological Service Center,Guangzhou 510640,China;Lianjiang Meteorological Bureau,Lianjiang 524400,China;Guangxi Meteorological Science Institute,Nanning 530022,China)
出处
《长江科学院院报》
北大核心
2025年第9期106-113,166,共9页
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute
基金
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金-青年基金项目(2023A1515110518)
广东省气象局科学技术研究项目(GRMC2020Q19,GRMC2022M35)
广东省气象台科学技术研究项目(202411)。
关键词
集雨区
降水变化特征
环流形势场
台风
降水观测资料
Micaps数据
鹤地水库
水库蓄水和调度
catchment area
precipitation change characteristics
circulation flow pattern
typhoon
precipitation observation data
Micaps data
Hedi Reservoir
reservoir storage and forecast
