摘要
运用产业重心模型、区位基尼系数、比较优势指数、基于最优参数的地理探测器模型等方法,深入探讨1995-2021年黄河流域粮食、油料、蔬菜和水果4类农作物生产格局演变特征,系统剖析驱动农作物生产格局演变的影响因素。研究结果表明:近30年来,粮食、蔬菜、水果“进”、油料“退”是黄河流域农作物的基本演变趋势;农作物生产重心发生不同程度的迁移,但4类农作物生产重心均集中于中游地区;粮食生产空间较为稳定,油料、水果生产集聚程度增强,蔬菜生产空间扩散明显;农作物生产综合比较优势受规模比较优势主导,粮食、水果规模比较优势突出但效率优势有待提升,油料生产处于劣势地位,蔬菜具有规模比较优势但呈波动变化;自然本底条件、社会经济发展水平、农业技术进步、农业发展政策等多种力量综合作用推动农作物生产格局的演变,不同影响因素的作用强度存在显著时空异质性。
Using the industrial gravity model,location Gini coefficient,comparative advantage index,and an optimal parameters-based geographical detector(OPGD)model,this research explored the evolutionary characteristics of the production patterns of four major crops(namely,grain,oilseeds,vegetables,and fruits)in the Yellow River Basin from 1995 to 2021.Moreover,it systematically analyzed the influencing factors driving the evolution of crop production patterns.The results showed that over the past 30 years,the basic trend in the evolution of crops in the basin was the“advancing”of grain,vegetables,and fruits,while oilseeds were“retreating”.The gravity centers of all four crop production moved to varying degrees,but remained concentrated in the midstream regions of the basin.The grain production exhibited spatial stability,while oilseed and fruit production tended to be focused,with evident spatial proliferation of vegetable production.The scale comparative advantages dominated the aggregated comparative advantages of the main crops in the basin.The scale comparative advantages of grain and fruits were outstanding,while the efficiency advantages needed improving.The disadvantageous position of oilseed production was gradually strengthened,while vegetables exhibited fluctuating scale comparative advantages.Influencing factors such as natural foundational conditions,socioeconomic development levels,agricultural technological advancements and development policies,and other forces played a joint role in promoting the evolution of crop production patterns,and there was significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity in the role intensities of different influencing factors.
作者
黄鑫
徐小任
王梁
任丹丹
HUANG Xin;XU Xiaoren;WANG Liang;REN Dandan(College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China;Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China;Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water and Soil Conservation and Environmental Protection,Linyi University,Linyi 276005,China;School of Resources and Environment(College of Carbon Neutrality),Linyi University,Linyi 276005,China)
出处
《晓庄学院自然科学学报》
北大核心
2025年第4期86-95,共10页
Journal of Natural Science of Hunan Normal University
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(24YJCZH362)
国家自然科学基金项目(42207551)
山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2023MD089)
山东省社会科学规划研究项目(23CKRJ02)。
关键词
农作物
生产格局
影响因素
黄河流域
最优参数地理探测器
crop
production pattern
influencing factors
the Yellow River Basin
optimal parameters-based geographical detector model
