摘要
在“双碳”战略背景以及长江经济带绿色可持续发展的要求下,明确掌握长江经济带碳排放时空演变特征及驱动机制对于碳排放减排政策的制定和实现低碳发展具有重要意义.本文基于长江经济带11个省市的2001-2021年碳排放量、能源消耗、经济发展等数据,采用分段线性回归分析、Tapio脱钩模型以及LMDI模型等方法探讨碳排放的时空演变特征及驱动因素.结果表明:1)2001-2021年,碳排放量(以标准煤计)从11.81亿t增至37.37亿t,11个省市在2011-2013年期间出现显著断点,呈现先快速增长后逐步放缓的特征,在空间分布上呈现“东部>中部>西部”的格局;2)在2001-2021年期间,碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系呈现明显的“扩张性连接-弱脱钩-强脱钩”变化趋势;3)经济产出是碳排放增长的主要驱动因素,能源效率则起到显著的碳减排作用.综上,长江经济带需要加强能源效率的提升、加速经济结构的优化,以及推进区域协同减排,以推动绿色低碳发展目标的实现.
The“dual carbon”strategy,green and sustainable development policies necessitate a clear understanding of spatio-temporal evolutions and their driving mechanisms for carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,to formulate effective policies for carbon emission reduction and realization of low-carbon development.Data of carbon emissions,energy consumption,and economic development in 11 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2001-2021 are subject to piecewise linear regression analysis,Tapio decoupling model,and LMDI model.Carbon emissions were found to have increased from 1.181 billion tons to 3.737 billion tons from 2001 to 2021.A significant breakpoint was found from 2011-2013,showing a pattern of rapid growth followed by gradual slowdown.A spatial pattern of“east>central>west”was identified.Decoupling between carbon emission and economic growth showed a clear trend of“expansionary connection-weak decouplingstrong decoupling”from 2001-2021.Economic output was found to be the main driving factor for increased carbon emissions,energy efficiency playing a significant role in the reduction of carbon emissions.Therefore enhanced energy efficiency,accelerated optimization in economic structure,promotion of regional collaborative reduction in emission are required to achieve the goal of green and low-carbon development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.
作者
徐述邦
刘建峰
陈燕飞
程淑婕
XU Shubang;LIU Jianfeng;CHEN Yanfei;CHENG Shujie(College of Resources and Environment,Yangtze University,Wuhan,Hubei,China;Institute of Integrated Utilization of Water Resources,Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan,Hubei,China;Key Laboratory of Basin Water Resources&Eco-Environmental Science in Hubei Province,Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan,Hubei,China)
出处
《北京师范大学学报(自然科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第4期466-474,共9页
Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)
基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2023YFC3205600)。
关键词
碳排放
时空演变特征
Tapio脱钩模型
LMDI
分段线性回归
carbon emissions
spatio-temporal evolution characteristics
Tapio decoupling model
LMDI
piecewise linear regression
