摘要
虽然新型冠状病毒感染大流行已经结束,但新发烈性传染病暴发流行的风险持续存在,且一旦发生将会造成巨大的社会经济影响。因此,新发传染病预警是一项十分重要且紧迫的研究任务。在新发传染病暴发前作出预警,对社会的冲击最小。因此,任何暴发前预警的尝试都值得探索。然而,目前尚没有证实有效、切实可行的暴发前预警方法,暴发后的快速确认和应对,仍是目前应对新发传染病的关键,行动的速度和有效性则取决于平时的准备。本文旨在围绕传染病预警的总体方向和路线,提出并论证暴发后快速应对的策略。如何在实践中实现这个机制,还需要依据有关原理,建立预警机制的试验基地,以严重型流感等疾病或假设案例作为预警对象,明确预警信号,构建初步的流行病学调查、上报和应对机制,展开深入的可行性研究。
Although the COVID-19 pandemic has subsided,the risk of the outbreak of new emerging infectious diseases remained constantly present.As such an outbreak can have devastating consequences to the society and economy,development of warning strategies before it takes place is a critical and urgent research task.However,there are currently no validated methods that are both effective and practically feasible for giving pre-outbreak alerts.As such,timely identification and rapid response after an outbreak takes place is still a feasible and effective method for responding to new emerging infectious diseases.The speed and efficiency of the response are largely contingent upon preparedness during the inter-epidemic periods.This paper aims to outline our thinking about the framework for infectious disease early warning and propose some recommendations.Implementation of such a strategy in practice necessitates the establishment of pilot initiatives to test the early warning system according to our proposed principles.These pilots may use severe influenza or hypothetical outbreak scenarios as examples,define warning signals,develop the mechanisms for epidemiological investigation,reporting and response so as to conduct feasibility assessments.
作者
唐金陵
李立明
Tang Jinling;Li Liming(Department of Computational Biology and Medical Big Data,School of Computer Science and Control Engineering,Shenzhen University of Advanced Technology,Shenzhen 518107,China;Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Peking University,Beijing 100191,China;Peking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness&Response,Beijing 100191,China;Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases(Peking University),Ministry of Education,Beijing 100191,China)
出处
《中华流行病学杂志》
北大核心
2025年第8期1315-1318,共4页
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
关键词
传染病
暴发
预警
监测
公共卫生应急
Infectious disease
Outbreak
Early warning
Surveillance
Public health emergency
