摘要
为提升山岳型风景区低空旅游场景中大型载人电动垂直起降航空器(eVTOL)的运行安全性,以广西贺州姑婆山为运行场景,以亿航EH216-S型无人驾驶航空器为例,基于风险管理理论并结合该型航空器的专用条件,系统识别与分析其运行风险。首先,运用文献研究法和类比推理法,从人为因素、设备因素、环境因素及管理因素4个方面识别并分析eVTOL的运行风险;然后,将模糊综合评价法和层次分析法引入贝叶斯网络(BN)模型,开展风险评价;最后,依据BN计算事故诱因后验概率。结果表明:在控制失效发生时,导航失效是首要致因,事件发生概率为79.41%,导致导航失效的主要原因是指挥控制链路故障,概率为97.02%;采用多重信道加密技术和复杂高速跳频技术,依托数据链干扰程度预测模型和抗干扰通信方案可降低eVTOL的运行风险。
To enhance the operational safety of large manned eVTOL aircraft in low-altitude tourism scenarios in mountainous scenic areas,this study used Gupo Mountain in Hezhou,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region as the operational context and the EHang EH216-S unmanned aerial vehicle as an example.Based on risk management theory and the specific conditions of this aircraft,the study identified and analyzed its operational risks.First,through literature review and analogical reasoning,the operational risks of the eVTOL aircraft were identified from four aspects:human factors,equipment factors,environmental factors,and management factors.Then,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and analytic hierarchy process were integrated into the BN model to conduct risk assessment.Finally,the posterior probabilities of accident causation were calculated using the BN model.The results indicate that,in the event of a control failure,navigation failure is the primary cause,with an occurrence probability of 79.41%.A fault in the command and control link is the main reason for navigation failure,with a probability of 97.02%.The application of multiple-channel encryption technology and complex high-speed frequency hopping techniques,along with a data link interference prediction model and anti-jamming communication strategies,can reduce the operational risks associated with eVTOL.
作者
李佳音
谭德强
钱祎祎
LI Jiayin;TAN Deqiang;QIAN Yiyi(College of Aviation Engineering,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan Sichuan 618307,China;Guangzhou Aircraft Maintenance Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou Guangdong 510470,China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
北大核心
2025年第S1期210-216,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(52105132,52205239)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(25CAFUC01002,24CAFUC04006)
四川省通用航空器维修工程技术研究中心资助项目(GAMRC2023ZD04)。
